
There may not be another game on the Week 4 college football schedule that carries more weight and importance for both teams than No. 12 USC hosting No. 20 Oregon.
Coach Lincoln Riley is in his fifth season at USC and hasn't come close to making the College Football Playoff with the Trojans after doing it three times at Oklahoma. Patience is running thin within the USC fan base, and a loss to what looks to be a vulnerable Oregon team would be beyond deflating for any hope of a playoff breakthrough this year.
On the other side, Dan Lanning is expected to have the Ducks competing for the national championship every season, with one of the sport's richest NIL wells funding his roster. After barely getting past Boise State in Week 1 and then losing 39-31 at Oklahoma State in Week 2, Oregon's playoff hopes would be severely diminished with another loss Saturday night.
The Ducks (2-1) are a 3-point road favorite over the Trojans (4-0) in the Coliseum on Saturday night (7:30 p.m. ET on NBC), per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Breaking down the matchup on his "See Ball Get Ball" podcast, college football analyst David Pollack was only confident in one thing.
"If you asked me what game has the chance to be the most exciting, I absolutely think it's this one. This has got old Pac-12 written all over it to me," Pollack said. "Both teams might touch 40s, but I feel very confident in saying they're both going to get in the 30s."
Pollack did pick his projected winner, but that forecast came with much more trepidation.
"When you're picking this game, it feels like a 'What do you trust the most?' game to me," he said. "I'm gonna say this out loud, I don't know if I should -- I don't trust either team. I don't have high confidence. ... But USC at home, and from what i've seen so far, I think I trust them a little bit more. Which is very weird to say. I've got 38-34 USC. And I think if that's the case, everyone will be off the Ducks' bandwagon -- not just me."
USC is loaded offensively with fifth-year senior quarterback Jayden Maiava (1,173 passing yards, 12 TDs, 1 INT in four games), a two-headed rushing attack with King Miller (338 yards on 5.3 yards per carry) and Waymond Jordan (188 yards on 5.1 YPC) and a deep and talented young receiving corps.
But after an encouraging start against the likes of San Jose State and Fresno State, the Trojans' defense -- led by longtime former TCU head coach Gary Patterson in his first season as USC defensive coordinator -- has wilted in recent weeks, giving up 30 points to Louisiana and 35 to Rutgers.
"A couple things really bother me about this [USC] defense," Pollack said. "One, they have to play zone coverage in the back end. That's what Gary Patterson wants to do anyways, but I'll say this -- the run fits up front really bother me. It really bothers me. They do a poor job of getting out of gaps. ... So I'm really worried about this defense."
On the other side, Oregon is also struggling defensively, which is more surprising. The Ducks ranked 7th nationally in total defense last year (273.7 YPG allowed) and 12th in scoring defense (17.9 PPG) on the way to the CFP semifinals. This season, they rank 55th (310.3 YPG) and tied for 68th (22.0 PPG).
The offense is still plenty capable, though, with Dante Moore back at quarterback (849 yards, 9 TDs, 0 INTs in three games), but the run game led by Jordon Davison (team-high 194 rushing yards and 4 TDs on 5.9 YPC) ranks just 68th nationally.
"Really, it's the defense more than it's the offense. Dante Moore has 9 touchdowns, 0 interceptions -- still doing a phenomenal job taking care of the football," Pollack said, breaking down the Ducks. "The run game hasn't supplemented Oregon at all. That's been the biggest 'Holy cow' that's stuck out. Because last year, they wanted a street fight. They wanted to punch you in the mouth. ... But the offense hasn't been the biggest issue -- it's been the defense. And they've been giving up so many plays in the back end."
Ultimately, that's what led Pollack to give the Trojans a slight edge going into this immensely pivotal game for both Big Ten teams.
"They've played some pretty good offenses, Oregon has. Obviously, Oklahoma State is really, really good on offense. Boise State is really good on offense. [USC] is the most balanced offense maybe in the country, period," Pollack said. "They know how to run it. They know how to throw it. USC, the young receivers have absolutely molded together nicely, the experience on the offensive line, the experience at QB.
"So you're telling me the defense has struggled with eye discipline, and now you get Lincoln Riley and now you get Maiava? ... That matchup, to me, is crazy to watch because it's obviously strength on Oregon's weakness so far to start the season."
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