Until it actually happens, Oregon fans will continue to get unending grief from Ohio State, Oregon State, Washington and USC fans, but odds released Tuesday from Circa Sports show the Ducks among the favorites for the 2025 college football national championship.
Ohio State, Texas 5-1
Georgia 6½-1
Oregon 7/1
Penn State 7½-1
Alabama, Notre Dame 15-1
Tennessee 18-1
Clemson 20-1
LSU, Michigan, Ole Miss 25-1
A&M 35-1
Miami 45-1
Florida, S Carolina 50-1
Auburn 60-1
USC 75-1
It's good to be in the conversation. Dan Lanning has an .854 winning percentage after three years as a head coach, but the close-but-no-cigar label is hard to shake. Winning it all means peaking in the playoffs and staying relatively healthy. It requires solving some key problems and developing young players now-- over his first three seasons, Lanning's relied heavily on veteran transfers, while young players waited their turn.
He's recruited at a fantastic level, stacking classes ranked ninth, third and fifth in the last three cycles from 2023 to 2025. In 2026, Oregon's 10 commitments rank No. 2 in the 247Sports Composite.
The Ducks can win a national title this year if:
1. The winner of the Dante Moore/Austin Novosad quarterback battle develops into a reliable playoff-caliber starter.
2. Defensive backs coach Chris Hampton can craft a shutdown secondary with three veterans from the transfer portal (Dillon Thieneman, Theron Johnson, Jadon Canady) and a flock of highly touted young players (Jalil Florence, Ify Obidegwu, Na'eem Offord, Trey McNutt, Kingston Lopa, Aaron Flowers, Peyton Woodyard) into a secondary that can match up with top offenses.
3. Bear Alexander and Amauri Washington can be as disruptive as Derrick Harmon and Jamaree Caldwell were in the interior of the defensive line.
4. A'lique Terry and Cutter Leftwich achieve unity, cohesiveness and consistency on the offensive line. Isaiah World has to be as advertised replacing Josh Conerly. The interior offensive line looks set with Emmanuel Pregnon, Dave Iuli, Iapani Laloulu and Matthew Bedford providing an effective nucleus.
5. The receiver group comes together and Dakorien Moore unleashes his potential.
6. Tosh Lupoi's defense ranked 36th last season in yards per play, 16th in scoring defense. That's solidly in the category of good but not great. He and his group have to turn up the disruption level and reduce the breakdowns. Duck fans are still having flashbacks of wide-open Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl.
That's the overview. The devil is in the details, a week at a time, a day at a time, getting 1% better from now until next January. Winning the showdown at Penn State at Sept. 27 wouldn't hurt.
For now, Lanning is in that group of coaches that's won at a good clip but hasn't won it all. Only three active coaches have won a title now that Ryan Day has won his first, Day, Kirby Smart and Dabo Swinney.
Spring practice begins in just under two weeks.
Couple of old coaches with the real deal. Coach Lanning gets it. pic.twitter.com/AxW3STsAp4
— Rich Brooks (@UKcoachbrooks) March 3, 2025
Lanning solidifies the real deal label if he can solve these critical problems this season.
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