ESPN Analyst Predicts Penn State in Title Game; Nittany Lions Slip in SP+

The preseason praise continues rolling in for Penn State, including one award Nittany Lions coach James Franklin just might frame for his man cave. Congratulations to Franklin on being named CBS Sports' preseason coach of the year.

Elsewhere, ESPN dropped two interesting notes about the Nittany Lions, one positive and one prompting pause. ESPN analysts Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach released their preseason bowl predictions, which included a glance at the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket.

Both writers have Penn State returning to the semifinals, but only one picks the Nittany Lions to go that step further. Bonagura predicts Penn State will beat Ohio State (wow!) in the semifinals at the Peach Bowl and face No. 1 Texas in the Jan. 19 CFP championship game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Schlabach, meanwhile, delivers the sting, picking Clemson over the Nittany Lions in the semis.

Meanwhile, ESPN's Bill Connelly, author of the SP+ rankings algorithm, found that Penn State slipped a spot in his final preseason predictive measurement. Penn State checks in at No. 4 in the latest SP+ rankings released this week. That's down one spot from Penn State's post-spring ranking.

As a refresher, Connelly's formula measures team efficiences across offense, defense and special teams to predict a result instead of measuring success. Penn State had been improving. The Nittany Lions ranked ranked fifth in January's season-ending ESPN SP+ rankings and were third before and after spring practice. But in the preseason rankings, Georgia jumped ahead of Penn State to No. 3.

The margin is thin, as Georgia and Penn State both carry an SP+ rating of 24.2. Penn State's average regular-season wins total is higher than Georgia's (10-9.3), but the Bulldogs hold a higher strength-of-schedule rating (13 to 39). To that end, two of Penn State's non-conference opponents (Nevada and FIU) rank in the 120s in the SP+.

Penn State also has a 15 percent chance to win the Big Ten, according to the SP+ rankings. Ohio State, the top-ranked team in SP+, leads at 19 percent.

For Penn State, this has been a preseason of elevated expectations, particularly from the national media. The Nittany Lions are No. 2 in the AP Top 25 and No. 3 in the Coaches Poll. Analysts such as long-time preview artist Phil Steele pick Penn State to win it all. There's a "natty or bust" quality to the conversation surrounding Penn State.

And yet, some voices simply aren't buying the Nittany Lions yet, notably Chris "Mad Dog" Russo, who launched this broadside at Penn State on ESPN's First Take.