ESPN Analytics Bullish on Texas Longhorns, But There's a Catch

Heading into the 2025 season, the Texas Longhorns are widely seen as one of the top contenders for the national championship, and it's easy to see why.

The Longhorns' offense, led by new starting quarterback Arch Manning, is largely inexperienced, but there's talent brimming at every position. Their defense - which finished in the top five nationally in points allowed, yards allowed and sacks - features several returning stars such as linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and defensive lineman Colin Simmons, plus some new faces ready to make an impact. Altogether, they have what is easily one of the most talented rosters in the entire country.

That said, there could be a couple hurdles in the way.

Heather Dinich Reveals Potential Obstacles for Texas Longhorns

ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Longhorns an 83.9 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff and a 24.1 percent chance to win the national championship, both the best in the country. However, college football analyst Heather Dinich, while still viewing the Longhorns as a playoff team, believes there's too much unknown to view them as the top team.

"The Longhorns should be in -- either as the SEC champ, or through an at-large bid. But ESPN's FPI projects Texas will win every game, and that's not going to happen with a first-time starting quarterback -- no matter what his last name is," Dinich wrote. "There's an extraordinary amount of pressure onArch Manning, and while he could lead the Longhorns to the SEC championship, he's going to need some margin for error along the way. Texas will have four new starting offensive linemen, and it is replacing its top three pass catchers from last season.

"The Longhorns are a playoff team -- but there are too many questions heading into the season opener against Ohio State to declare them a preseason No. 1."

Dinich also noted how the Longhorns could find themselves in a hole early on if they don't come out of the gate swinging.

"If Texas loses at Ohio State, there won't be anything to separate the Longhorns as a true contender heading into October," Dinich wrote. "Texas would likely have a 3-1 September start in that scenario with home wins against San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston.

"Style points will matter, but only so much against unranked, overmatched non-power opponents. That could come back to haunt it in the committee meeting room as the rankings play out -- especially if some SEC opponents such as Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Arkansas don't finish as CFP top 25 teams."

The Longhorns will have a chance to make up for a potential slow start with a late-season road game against Georgia, but if they lose that game as well as the opener against Ohio State, their resume might not look that impressive.

Of course, Texas still has the talent to not only make it to the College Football Playoff, but win the whole thing. However, its margin for error could be quite thin.