Nov 23, 2024; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) scrambles during the second half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

ESPN Analytics: Illinois a Massive Favorite Over Western Illinois in Season Opener

Originally posted on Illinois Fighting Illini on SI
By Jackson Langendorf | Last updated Aug 25, 2025 5:52 PM ET

ESPN’s metrics may not be Illinois football’s biggest fan (and, in fact, may be its No. 1 hater), but there is no skewing this one: The Illini head into their Week 1 matchup vs. Western Illinois (6:30 p.m. CT, Peacock) as massive favorites – which is hardly a surprise.

FINALLY, GAME WEEK. pic.twitter.com/JfIwRVTNbI
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) August 25, 2025

The No. 12 team in the country, at home, facing an FCS opponent that finished 4-8 in 2024. Well, naturally the expectation is that the Illini will thrash the Leathernecks. The sportsbooks agree with that notion, as do the advanced numbers.

According to the analytics from ESPN, the home squad has a whopping 99.0 percent chance of prevailing. Led by returning star quarterback Luke Altmyer, along with a gritty defense spearheaded by uber-talented outside linebacker Gabe Jacas, the Illini are in a different stratosphere – both on offense and defense – than the Leathernecks.

But ... anything is possible

Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Then again, it’s not like an upset of this magnitude has never been pulled off. Every college football fan of a certain age – especially those from the Big Ten – can remember that fateful 2007 opener between Michigan and Appalachian State. The Wolverines were the No. 5 team in the country, while the Mountaineers were an FCS squad, yet the visitors came into the Big House and knocked off Michigan 34-32 in one of the biggest upsets in college football history. (It is worth noting that the Mountaineers were back-to-back FCS reigning national champions at the time, and proceeded to win a third straight in 2007.)

And although Western Illinois isn’t even near App State's 2007 status, even if the Leathernecks are able to merely push the home team, it would amount to a moral defeat for the Illini. With sky-high expectations heading into 2025 and a program track record of bottoming out when hopes are highest, Illinois cannot afford even the slightest setback in its opener.

Regardless, the Illini, with tough-minded head coach Bret Bielema at the helm, figures to be well-prepared to start the season without a hitch. And if last year’s 45-0 trouncing of Eastern Illinois in the season-opener is any sign of things to come in Week 1 of 2025, the Illini should have no trouble opening a gargantuan lead over Western Illinois and tapping cruise control en route to a blowout victory.

This article first appeared on Illinois Fighting Illini on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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