ESPN computer predicts USC vs. Illinois football game winner

USC and Illinois face off in an important early Big Ten clash as college football’s Week 5 action gets underway on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

USC moved to 2-0 in Big Ten play last weekend after a key victory over Michigan State, as quarterback Jayden Maiava emerged as one of a select few quarterbacks to go over 1,000 yards passing on the season at the helm of college football’s 6th ranked scoring attack, averaging 53 points per game.

Illinois dropped unceremoniously to an 0-1 mark in conference play on the wrong end of an ugly 63-10 decision at Indiana with quarterback Luke Altmyer basically holding up an offense that to date has averaged just 124 rushing yards per game, ranking 102nd in the country.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

USC vs. Illinois prediction

As might be expected, the models are siding more with the Trojans over the Illini, and by quite a margin coming into this Big Ten test.

USC is projected to defeat Illinois outright in the game, coming out ahead in the majority 72.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves the Illini as the presumptive winner in the remaining 27.1 percent of sims.

In total, the Trojans came out on top in 14,580 of the simulations of the contest, while Illinois edged out Southern Cal in the other 5,420 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Despite the discrepancy in the projections, the model suggests it could be as close as a touchdown.

USC is projected to be just 6.3 points better than Illinois on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s 20,000 simulations.

• USC: 72.9% chance to win
• Illinois: 27.1% chance to win
• Prediction: USC by 6

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Trojans to cover the spread against the Illini in this Big Ten road test.

That’s because USC is a 6.5 point favorite against Illinois, according to the updates game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 60.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for USC at -250 and for Illinois at +210 to win outright.

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USC vs. Illinois future projections

USC placed fourth among Big Ten teams after the computer simulated every possible situation when forecasting the conference championship and playoff race in 2025.

The models forecast that the Trojans will win the Big Ten title in 13.2 percent of the conference simulations, and they make the College Football Playoff in 49.2 percent of the computer’s 20,000 calculations.

The model projects that USC will win 9.7 games this season.

Illinois predictably dropped in the model’s estimation after the loss to Indiana, plunging to 11th among Big Ten teams with a 0.1 shot to win the conference title.

There’s just a 2.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff in the latest projections, which find the Illini effectively out of the national championship picture.

The computer predicts Illinois will win 7.2 games this year, with a 92 percent chance to finish bowl eligible.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 72.3 percent of all games and hit 52.3 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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