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ESPN FPI Gives Storied Program No Chance of Making College Football Playoff

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Joe Vitale | Last updated Aug 27, 2025 9:43 PM ET

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), a predictive model that factors in past results, schedule strength, and thousands of simulations, currently gives Texas an 87 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, the best odds of any team heading into Week 1.

Right behind Texas, the FPI projects Georgia (75.6%), Alabama (71.4%), Ohio State (68.9%), Penn State (66.6%), Notre Dame (55.5%) and Oregon (51%) as the only other teams with at least a 50 percent shot at reaching the 12-team College Football Playoff. That leaves 129 FBS programs below the 50 percent mark, a group that includes some heavyweights like Tennessee (43.4%), Clemson (37.2%), LSU (32.4%) and Michigan (29.3%).

But no program stands out more than the Florida State Seminoles, who the FPI all but rules out as a contender.

Scroll down and you'll find FSU ranked No. 65 in the FPI rankings ahead of their Week 1 game against No. 8 Alabama in Tallahassee. The computer model gives it a 90.6 percent chance of losing that game, and it projects Florida State to keep losing after that, predicting a final record for the 'Noles of roughly 5-7. Additionally, the FPI gives the Seminoles just a 0.4 percent chance of making the playoff. That leaves Florida State, one of college football's most storied programs, with practically no chance to make it, according to ESPN’s model.

Florida State will lean on former Boston College quarterback Tommy Castellanos, a dual-threat senior who completed 61.5 percent of his passes in 2024 for 1,366 yards, 18 touchdowns and five interceptions. He also ran for 194 yards on 93 carries.

"I think Tommy is playing as good as he's been," Norvell said of his quarterback this week. "That is the expectation. As he's come in, there's the ownership of all actions, of what he's doing with his arm, what he does with his legs. I think even the continued growth in protections and being able to help position and get us in the best plays."

At receiver, he’ll have some reliable options, including former Tennessee wideout Squirrel White, who has 1,665 yards over three college seasons.

Coaching Changes Aim to Spark a Turnaround

FSU's struggles last season were glaring on both sides of the ball. The Seminoles finished 131st out of 134 FBS teams in scoring offense, averaging just 15.4 points per game, per CFBStat.com. To address that, head coach Mike Norvell brought in former Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn, fresh off a four-year stint with UCF. Malzahn, considered an offensive mastermind, guided Auburn to a national championship appearance in 2013. He also helped the Tigers win it in 2010 as offensive coordinator with Cam Newton at quarterback.

Florida State didn’t fare much better defensively last season, ranking 87th nationally and allowing 28 points per game. To fix that, Norvell hired Tony White, a former Syracuse and Nebraska coordinator known for his 3-3-5 scheme. Syracuse's run defense ranked 109th in the FBS in 2019, one year before White's arrival, giving up 201.5 rushing yards per game. By 2021, the Orange had climbed to 26th, cutting that number to 126 yards. White then moved to Nebraska, where the Cornhuskers ranked 108th in rushing defense the year before his arrival in 2022. Last season, they finished No. 8 nationally in that category, one of the most dramatic defensive turnarounds in college football.

Every FPI Projection for Florida State in 2025:

Some notable teams that rank ahead of Florida State in the FPI include Vanderbilt, Rutgers, UNLV, Memphis and Boston College. The Seminoles check in well behind those programs with the following projections:

Overall FPI Ranking: No. 65
FPI Score: 0.3
Projected Record: 5.3 – 6.7
Win Out %: 0.0%
Chance to Win 6+ Games: 44.2%
Chance to Win Division: 0.0%
Chance to Win Conference: 0.3%
Chance to Make Playoff: 0.4%
Chance to Make National Championship: 0.0%
Chance to Win National Championship: 0.0%

But Rece Davis Disagrees, Offers Hope for Florida State:

Remember, the FPI is nothing more than a computer-generated projection. If there's truly one college football expert, it's none other than 'College GameDay' host Rece Davis, who amazes fans each week by correctly answering the proposed trivia question.

In July, Davis actually said that he thinks Florida State is going to challenge Kalen DeBoer and the Crimson Tide in Week 1, and the narrative afterward will be skewed to be about how bad Alabama is rather than how good FSU is.

“Florida State is going to be so much more improved,” Davis said. “Because they will threaten Alabama, it’s going to be — instead of Florida State being improved — is this really working at Alabama?”

According to ESPN BET, Alabama is a 13.5-point favorite over Florida State.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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