ESPN FPI Predicts Outcome of LSU Football's Remaining Schedule After Week 5 Loss

Originally posted on LSU Tigers on SI | By Zack Nagy | Last updated Sep 29, 2025 10:20 AM ET

Brian Kelly and the LSU Tigers remain in headlines after suffering the program's first loss of the season on Saturday afternoon at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.

In a matchup that generated significant buzz, Lane Kiffin and the Ole Miss Rebels handed the Bayou Bengals their first loss of the season in a tight 24-19 matchup.

For the Tigers, the program marched down the field for a touchdown on the second drive of the game, but struggled to get in a groove for the final 3.5 quarters of play in Oxford.

“Disappointed in the loss, certainly,” Kelly said on Saturday. “There is a game within the game. You start with the first half, where our inability to sustain anything on the offensive side of the ball put our defense on the field for 50 plays.

“At the end of the day, when you put it all together for four quarters, we didn’t play complementary football, which you have to do in this league. You have to be able to complement your offense and defense. When our offense started to move the ball, our defense couldn’t get the stop.”

Now, with a loss under the program's belt, what is the trajectory of the LSU Tigers moving forward? Can Kelly and Co. bounce back and end the season strong?

The ESPN Football Power Index has updated the Tigers' chances in each of the final seven games remaining in the 2025 season.

The LSU Tigers ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances:

*Note: The percentages reflect LSU's chances to earn a win.*

South Carolina (Oct. 11) - 70.3 percent chance to win
at Vanderbilt (Oct. 18) - 34.9 percent chance to win
Texas A&M (Oct. 25) - 53.2 percent chance to win
at Alabama (Nov. 8) - 22.0 percent chance to win
Arkansas (Nov. 15) - 74.4 percent chance to win
Western Kentucky (Nov. 22) - 95.9 percent chance to win
at Oklahoma (Nov. 29) - 38.9 percent chance to win

Kelly and the LSU Tigers head into matchups against Vanderbilt, Alabama and Oklahoma as underdogs, according to the ESPN Football Power Index, as it currently stands.

No. 13 LSU will utilize an open date in Week 6 before the program returns to action on Oct. 11 for an SEC matchup against LaNorris Sellers and the South Carolina Gamecocks in Baton Rouge.

This article first appeared on LSU Tigers on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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