ESPN FPI's Chances for Texas Football to Win It All

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Cami Griffin | Last updated Jun 6, 2025 6:42 PM ET

The Texas Longhorns will enter the 2025 college football season with extremely high expectations.

Many will say it's warranted due to Texas reaching the College Football Playoff semifinal each of the last two seasons. Even though the Longhorns are needing to reload at several positions this offseason, the potential of former five-star quarterback Arch Manning is what sets the hype over the top.

Manning is preparing for his first year as the full-time starter for the Longhorns. In two starts last season for an injured Quinn Ewers, Manning threw for 583 yards and accounted for five total touchdowns.

On the defensive side, Texas returns several of the nation's top playmakers in linebacker Anthony Hill Jr., pass rusher Colin Simmons and safety Michael Taaffe. With several key transfer additions on top of that, the Longhorns are viewed as the team to beat this season.

According to ESPN's FPI (Football Power Index) update that was released earlier this week, Texas has 24.1% chance to win the national title this season. Georgia has the second-best chances at 17.9% followed by Alabama and Ohio State with 10.8%.

Steve Sarkisian's squad also has a staggering 83.9% chance to reach the 12-team College Football Playoff this year and a 37.7% chance to play in the national title game.

ESPN's Paul Finebaum recently stated that Texas is the 'absolute' favorite to win it all, while many other college football analysts have more hesitation with the Longhorns due to inexperience with players in key positions who have yet to prove themselves.

We'll see if Texas can live up to the hype on Aug. 30 when they travel to Columbus to face Ohio State to open the season.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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