ESPN SP+ Model Predicts Final Score For Monmouth-Villanova

In one of three ranked matchups in Week 4, No. 11 Villanova travels to face No. 21 Monmouth. It's an important CAA battle, which could have a major impact on the conference title race.

The Wildcats currently sit at 1-1 with a win over Colgate and an FBS loss against Penn State. The Hawks started the season with back-to-back FCS wins over Colgate and Fordham, but fell in a competitive FBS game against Charlotte.

This will be the last meeting between these programs as CAA opponents, as Villanova heads to the Patriot League next season. Monmouth holds the 3-0 advantage over the Wildcats, including last year's 40-33 win. The two programs first met in 2011, which ended in a 20-9 win for the Hawks.

ESPN's Bill Connelly released his score predictions for every Week 4 FCS game using his SP+ formula. The model is a tempo and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.

According to Connelly's formula, Monmouth is projected to defeat Villanova 32-28, giving the Hawks their first ranked win of the season.

It's going to be a battle of strengths, according to the SP+ model. Monmouth ranks No. 2 nationally in offensive SP+ rating, while Villanova ranks No. 9 in defensive SP+ rating among all FCS programs. Both teams are ranked as top 30 programs in the SP+ rating, Monmouth (No. 24) edging Villanova (No. 27) by only three spots. One major outlier is Monmouth's defense, which is currently 113th among all FCS programs in defensive SP+ rating.

Monmouth's offense remains one of the most explosive in the nation, averaging over 530 yards per game. It all starts with quarterback Derek Robertson, who already has thrown for 1,265 yards and 14 touchdowns in only three games. It's not just an air raid attack, though. Rodney Nelson is still averaging over 100 yards per game, rushing for 326 yards on 5.7 yards per carry.

Villanova's defense may have an extremely tough matchup on Saturday, but there's no shortage of talent for the Wildcats. Linebacker Shane Hartzell and defensive lineman Ayden Howard are two of six returning defensive starters on the Villanova defense. Nicholls transfer Pat McQuaide will need to have a big game. He's passed for 326 yards and one touchdown over the first two games.

Kickoff is scheduled for Noon CT on FloSports.