ESPN SP+ Model Predicts Final Score For Northern Arizona-Incarnate Word

In one of three ranked matchups this weekend, No. 19 Incarnate Word travels to Flagstaff to face No. 17 Northern Arizona.

Incarnate Word may be facing a must-win situation after a disappointing 1-2 start. The Cardinals suffered an unexpected upset loss to Nicholls in Week 0, but rebounded with a win over Eastern Washington. This game is the beginning of a huge three-game stretch for UIW, featuring Top 25 matchups against NAU and Abilene Christian.

After an FBS loss to Arizona State, the Lumberjacks have improved to 2-1 with wins over Utah Tech and Southern Utah. Last week, Northern Arizona scored the game-winning touchdown with less than a minute remaining to escape Cedar City with a win. This will be the final opportunity for NAU to pick up a ranked non-conference win before starting Big Sky play next week against Portland State.

This will only be the second meeting between these programs. Incarnate Word won the inaugural matchup 38-14 last season in San Antonio.

ESPN's Bill Connelly released his score predictions for every Week 4 FCS game using his SP+ formula. The model is a tempo and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.

According to Connelly's formula, Northern Arizona is expected to win 31-28 over Incarnate Word, giving the Lumberjacks a solid non-conference win for their playoff resume.

North Arizona ranks No. 33 nationally in the SP+ rankings, while Incarnate Word ranks No. 35, making it no surprise that the model predicted an extremely competitive game. Most notably, Northern Arizona's offensive rating is the sixth-highest among FCS programs.

One notable change the model may overlook is Incarnate Word's change at quarterback. Head coach Clint Killough announced that UCF transfer EJ Colson will take over the QB1 spot after Richard Torres failed to find his rhythm over the first three games. Colson completed 17-of-24 passes for 213 yards and three scores last week against UTSA. Can the redshirt freshman give the UIW offense a much-needed spark on the road? It might be the difference for an Incarnate Word offense that ranks 60th in offensive SP+ this year.

On the other side, quarterback Ty Pennington has been excellent for the Lumberjacks after his breakout season last year. He's completed 67% of his passes for 799 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception. He has also added two scores on the ground. The one concern is defensive execution after the unit has allowed 30 or more points in three straight games. Northern Arizona ranks No. 98 nationally in defensive SP+ this season.

Kickoff is scheduled for 4 pm CT on ESPN+.