ESPN's ACC Football Projections Provide Hope for Cal

ESPN’s Bill Connelly posted his projections for the 2025 ACC football season on Monday, and it provides a spark of hope for Cal.

No, Cal is not considered one of the favorites, but the Bears are placed in a middle tier of teams that could do some good things if they get a few breaks.

The term “SP+” is used frequently in these projections, and it is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency developed by Connelly that uses a number of data points to provide a predictive formula.

Cal’s SP+ score of -0.3 places it 14th in the 17-team conference, but when placed against its ACC schedule of opponents for 2025 (Cal does not face Clemson or Miami), the Bears are projected to win 3.4 of their eight conference games, which puts them in 12th place. They are given a 60.4% chance of winning six games or more.

More significant is the tier in which Connelly places Cal.

The top tier of “Conference title contenders” includes just four teams – Clemson, Miami, SMU and Louisville.

But next is a tier of teams that are “A couple of breaks away from a run” includes eight teams, one of which is Cal.

The final category of teams “Just looking for a path to 6-6” has five teams, including Stanford.

In essence, this projection suggests that if things break Cal’s way this season, the Bears may have something.  In his commentary of Cal’s upcoming season, Connelly notes how close Cal came to having a much better record in 2024, pointing out that the Bears’ SP+ rating last season was the Bears’ best since Justin Wilcox became the head coach.  He said the Bears did a pretty good job of countering its massive transfer departures. Even the Calgorithm gets some props.

The conclusion is that the Bears will top last year’s six-win total if a few things work out in Cal’s favor

Here is Connelly’s lengthy assessment of Cal’s 2025 prospects:

California Golden Bears

Head coach: Justin Wilcox (ninth year, 42-50 overall)

2025 projection: 65th in SP+, 5.9 average wins (3.4 in the ACC)

Somehow, Cal may have had an even more memorable mediocre season than Pitt. Because of a 3-0 start and the vaunted Calgorithm, the Golden Bears hosted "College GameDay" for the first time when Miami came to town. They led by as many as 25 points but fell, 39-38. It was basically the story of their season: They finished 55th in SP+ -- their best ranking of the entire Justin Wilcox era -- but went 6-7 because of a 2-5 record in one-score finishes. To compound the frustration, they proceeded to lose 33 players to the portal. (Wilcox also changed both coordinators.)

Wilcox honestly did a pretty good job of finding upside to replace upside in the portal. At quarterback, he found junior Devin Brown (Ohio State) and blue-chip freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who had originally signed with Oregon. At running back, he grabbed Brandon High (UTSA), Kendrick Raphael (NC State) and former blue-chipper L.J. Johnson Jr. (SMU). Five new WRs and two TEs came in, including a high-level slot receiver in UNLV's Jacob De Jesus and two of the most explosive receivers in FCS, Idaho's Mark Hamper and South Dakota's Quaron Adams (combined: 1,504 yards, 22.4 per catch). And he has five new offensive linemen to pair with two 2024 starters and 2023 starter Sioape Vatikani, who missed a lot of last season.

On defense, quite a bit of last year's front six returns, including four of five primary linemen, but Wilcox still added four more linebackers and three linemen, including Liberty's TJ Bush Jr.. (nine TFLs) and former blue-chipper Tyson Ford (Notre Dame). The secondary, however, lost seven of last year's top eight. In come seven DB transfers, including corners Hezekiah Masses (FIU) and Brent Austin (USF).

The defense graded out better last season and returns more experience, but while I'm not sure what to expect from new offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin, I really like the upside of the transfers there. The schedule is kind, featuring only two opponents projected better than 40th, and if either of the two athletic QBs plays at a solid level and the god of close games smiles on the Golden Bears -- two mighty ifs that may not come to fruition -- Cal could top last year's win total.

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