Sep 12, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti walks along the sideline during the second half against the Indiana State Sycamores at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

ESPN's Football Power Index Predicts Clear Favorite for Indiana-Iowa Clash

Originally posted on Indiana Hoosiers on SI
By Jackson Langendorf | Last updated Sep 25, 2025 5:46 PM ET

Last Saturday, ESPN’s Football Power Index gave Indiana a 62.8 percent chance of taking down then-No. 9 Illinois at home. In hindsight, that number was perhaps 30-plus percentage points too low.

Naturally, with the Hoosiers playing relatively subpar opponents in their first three outings, ESPN’s metric knocked those out of the park, meaning the analytical tool has gone a solid 4-0 in predicting Curt Cignetti’s squad’s first four contests.

On the flip side, the FPI has also been perfect in predicting Iowa’s 2025 season thus far. The Hawkeyes have been favored by the predictive tool in every game this season, aside from one: at Iowa State. In that contest, Iowa fell 16-13, and that remains the lone blemish on its record.

ESPN’s FPI predicts Indiana at Iowa

As for this Week 5 contest that pits the pair of programs against one another, the metric appears quite confident in one team’s ability to prevail. That squad would be the visiting Hoosiers, as the FPI gives Indiana a 78.4 percent chance of leaving Kinnick Stadium with its second Big Ten win of the year.

On to our first business trip of 2025. pic.twitter.com/xx0lj7wSYz
— Indiana Football (@IndianaFootball) September 23, 2025

Is ESPN’s FPI prediction of Indiana-Iowa a fair assessment?

At first glance, giving any Kirk Ferentz-led team just a 21.6 percent chance of winning at home seems quite outlandish. Since the start of the 2023 season, Iowa has gone 14-2 at home.

In 2025, the Hawkeyes’ lone loss came on the road at the hands of the current No. 14 team in the country. Their defense is once again potent – although it looked mortal last weekend against Rutgers (allowed 28 points).

Although he hasn’t been uber-impressive through the air, quarterback Mark Gronowski is experienced, and extremely mobile. Iowa is clearly a very good football team, with one of the best home-field advantages in the Big Ten.

Despite all of that, ESPN’s FPI prediction is by no means a reach. Indiana has arguably a top five defense in the country. Iowa’s offense – which has historically been a weakness of Ferentz’s teams – would be fortunate to crack 15 points, and almost certainly won’t surpass 20.

And expecting a Hawkeyes defensive unit that just gave up 28 points against Rutgers to hold quarterback Fernando Mendoza and Indiana to less than three touchdowns is simply unrealistic.

There has been much talk of a “trap game” for the Hoosiers, but, in reality, Indiana should have no problem in Iowa City. Expect this to be a tougher matchup than the Week 4 contest against Illinois, but don’t be surprised if the Hoosiers put 40 on another Big Ten squad and knock off Iowa by a couple of touchdowns.

This article first appeared on Indiana Hoosiers on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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