ESPN's FPI Predicts Illinois vs. Rutgers: Will the Illini Bounce Back in Week 10?

Illinois vs. Rutgers: ESPN's FPI prediction

The first step in that process: take down Rutgers on Saturday (11 a.m. CT, NBC). Fortunately for the Illini, that shouldn’t be a back-breaking task. Per ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) – which, it should be noted, has accurately predicted seven of Illinois’ eight games thus far – the Illini have a 79.7 percent chance of taking down the Scarlet Knights.

Rutgers is 4-4 (1-4 Big Ten), with its lone conference win coming in Week 9 at Purdue. Greg Schiano’s club has lost three of its four Big Ten games by double digits, including a 46-point blemish at home against Oregon.ESPN’s FPI currently ranks Rutgers at No. 62 (still ahead of five other Big Ten teams), while Illinois slides into the No. 33 spot.

Is FPI's prediction a fair assessment?

At the start of the year, the Illini could have been expected to sleepwalk through this one, but things have changed since then. Illinois has taken care of business against lesser opponents, but save for its win over USC (now looking like an outlier), it has mostly appeared noncompetitive against premier competition.

The Illini defense has yet to recover from a collapse against Indiana in the Big Ten opener, and it is somehow showing signs of further deterioration – which should be a serious concern for coach Bret Bielema and his staff this weekend.

The Scarlet Knights haven’t excelled in 2025, but their offense is their sharpest tool. They have cracked 19 points in four out of five Big Ten games, and they are capable of putting up enough points to make things interesting in Champaign if the Illinois D doesn't fix its ragtag ways.

Even if the matchup turns into a barnburner, quarterback Luke Altmyer and the Illini offense should have little trouble keeping the chains moving – and the scoreboard scrolling up – against Rutgers' own limited defense.

With all that in mind, FPI giving the Illini an approximately four-out-of-five chance Saturday seems fair. Illinois should win this matchup – and handily. That said, Rutgers descending on Gies Memorial Stadium and snatching up the best win of its season suddenly doesn’t feel like the pipe dream it seemed just a few weeks ago.