Nov 30, 2024; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers head coach Brian Kelly looks on against the Oklahoma Sooners during the second quarter at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Expert College Football Model Predicts LSU Football's Finish in the SEC

Originally posted on LSU Tigers on SI | By Zack Nagy | Last updated Aug 20, 2025 2:00 PM ET

Brian Kelly and the LSU Tigers are 10 days away from taking the field at Clemson for the program's season opening showdown.

After critical offseason in Baton Rouge, the Bayou Bengals reconstructed the roster via the NCAA Transfer Portal while returning multiple key players from 2024.

LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier returns in 2025 after a productive first season under center for Kelly's program last fall.

The second-year starter joined Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow as the only players in program history to eclipse the 4,000-yard passing mark last year when he accounted for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns in his first year as a starter.

Now in his fifth season at LSU, Nussmeier enters his senior season ranked No. 9 in program history for career passing yards (5,772) and tied for No. 5 in passing touchdowns (40).

Along with Nussmeier back in the fold, it's the flurry of transfers the program added headlined by edge rushers Jack Pyburn and Patrick Payton along with offensive weapons Nic Anderson and Barion Brown.

LSU is "all-in" on the 2025 season after investing in the program both on and off the field, but ESPN's Football Power Index doesn't appear to be sold on the Tigers.

What is the ESPN Football Power Index?

According to CFB-HQ: "Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

"Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule."

Where does ESPN's FPI have the LSU Tigers finishing in the Southeastern Conference?

The Projection: No. 8

The ESPN Football Power Index gives LSU a 2.5 percent chance to win the SEC with the program's win total hovering around 7.7 wins.

LSU sits behind the Texas Longhorns, Georgia Bulldogs, Alabama Crimson Tide, Tennessee Volunteers, Texas A&M Aggies, Ole Miss Rebels, and South Carolina Gamecocks, according to ESPN's FPI.

This would be a significant step down for the Bayou Bengals with the program entering the year with a College Football Playoff or bust mentality in Baton Rouge.

Vegas currently has LSU's win total at 8.5 with the chance to handle business in 2025.

LSU will open the 2025 season on Aug. 30 at Clemson in a highly-anticipated non-conference showdown in Week 1.