Expert Computer Model Believes LSU Football Will Drop Multiple Games This Season

Originally posted on LSU Tigers on SI | By Zack Nagy | Last updated Oct 1, 2025 10:20 AM ET

No. 13 LSU (4-1, 1-1 SEC) will navigate an open date this week prior to a matchup against LaNorris Sellers and the South Carolina Gamecocks on Oct. 11 at Tiger Stadium.

Brian Kelly and the LSU Tigers have officially pressed the reset button after a difficult loss to the Ole Miss Rebels last weekend where the offense once again struggled to find a rhythm.

Across the first five games of the season, the LSU program is in the bottom half of the country in passing yards, rushing yards, points per game, and tackles for loss allowed, among other categories.

The LSU Tigers are averaging 27.0 points per game across five weeks with that number being inflated due to a 56 point showing against the Southeastern Louisiana Lions.

Aside from the 56 points against Southeastern Louisiana, LSU has scored 17 points [Clemson], 23 points [Louisiana Tech], 20 points [Florida] and 19 points [Ole Miss] through five games.

LSU's 27.0 points per game places the Tigers at No. 80 in college football when it comes to points per contest.

The Bayou Bengals are averaging 104.8 rushing yards per game across the first five games of the season - which places the Tigers at No. 121 in America in that statistic.

On Saturday against the Ole Miss Rebels, LSU ran the ball 22 times for an alarming 57 total yards on the ground.

The rushing attack has been abysmal for the Bayou Bengals across five games with a lack of complementary football on offense.

“Disappointed in the loss, certainly,” Kelly said on Saturday. “There is a game within the game. You start with the first half, where our inability to sustain anything on the offensive side of the ball put our defense on the field for 50 plays.

“At the end of the day, when you put it all together for four quarters, we didn’t play complementary football, which you have to do in this league. You have to be able to complement your offense and defense. When our offense started to move the ball, our defense couldn’t get the stop.”

Now, after a challenging start offensively to start the season, the ESPN Football Power Index has updated its algorithm with a season outlook for the LSU Tigers.

The LSU Tigers ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances:

*Note: The percentages reflect LSU's chances to earn a win.*

South Carolina (Oct. 11) - 70.3 percent chance to win
at Vanderbilt (Oct. 18) - 34.9 percent chance to win
Texas A&M (Oct. 25) - 53.2 percent chance to win
at Alabama (Nov. 8) - 22.0 percent chance to win
Arkansas (Nov. 15) - 74.4 percent chance to win
Western Kentucky (Nov. 22) - 95.9 percent chance to win
at Oklahoma (Nov. 29) - 38.9 percent chance to win

Kelly and the LSU Tigers head into matchups against Vanderbilt, Alabama and Oklahoma as underdogs, according to the ESPN Football Power Index, as it currently stands.

No. 13 LSU will return to action on Oct. 11 against LaNorris Sellers and the South Carolina Gamecocks at Tiger Stadium for a night game in Baton Rouge.

This article first appeared on LSU Tigers on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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