Expert Computer Model Predicts Final Score of LSU Football vs. Florida Gators

Originally posted on LSU Tigers on SI | By Zack Nagy | Last updated Sep 9, 2025 3:45 PM ET

No. 3 LSU (2-0, 0-0 SEC) will open conference play on Saturday night in Tiger Stadium with Billy Napier's Florida Gators making their way to Baton Rouge.

Brian Kelly and Co. will square off against the Southeastern Conference foe in Week 3 with the Bayou Bengals eyeing a critical win over the Gators.

LSU's shot-caller took the podium on Monday where he dove into the importance of having home-field advantage against the Gators with all eyes on the primetime matchup.

"We're in Tiger Stadium, and we need to be Death Valley," Kelly said. "We need to live up to our resume as the most difficult place to play in the country. It's SEC time.

"You had your warmup tailgates; you got your recipes down; you got how much you need for drinking. We need you this weekend, and we'll provide the standard in terms of how we need to play."

LSU enters the Week 3 matchup as heavy favorites, but the SP+ expert computer model believes the contest will be much tighter than Vegas has the current lines set at.

A look into the LSU versus Florida game information, current betting lines and the SP+ computer model prediction.

The Game Information: Week 3 Edition

Matchup : LSU Tigers vs. Florida Gators
Kickoff Time: 6:30 p.m. CT
Venue: Tiger Stadium - Baton Rouge (La.)
TV Channel: ABC
Radio: LSU Sports Radio Network
LSU Tigers Record : 2-0
Florida Gators Record: 1-1

Odds, Spread and Total: Week 3 Edition

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

LSU: -7.5 (-115)
Florida: +7.5 (-105)

Moneyline

LSU: -310
Florida: +250

Total

Over 48.5 (-112)
Under 48.5 (-108)

The LSU Tigers opened as 9.5-point favorites with the over/under initially being set at 52.5 once the lines opened on Sunday.

Now, the line has shrunk to LSU becoming a 7.5 favorite with an over/under sitting at 48.5 as Vegas continues adjusting the Week 3 odds.

The SP+ Computer Model Pick: LSU Gets It Done

According to the SP+ expert computer model, Kelly and Co. are expected to win by a 2.8-point margin in a close showdown in Death Valley.

This is significantly different than the current betting odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and other professional books that have the LSU Tigers listed as 7.5-point favorites ahead of Week 3.

The SP+ model gives the Bayou Bengals a 57 percent chance of walking out of Tiger Stadium with a victory under their belts with a final score prediction of 28-25 on Saturday night.

No. 17 LSU will kickoff against the Florida Gators in Week 3 at 6:30 p.m. CT on ABC on Saturday night.

This article first appeared on LSU Tigers on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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