FAU vs. Michigan State prediction, pick, odds for Fri. 8/30

Florida Atlantic vs. Michigan State Preview

Florida Atlantic Owls Betting Preview: Long Way to Go for Owls?

Tom Herman is in his second year with the Florida Atlantic Owls. Last season — their first in the AAC — they went just 4-8. The schedule does lighten up this season, but Florida Atlantic may still have to fight an uphill battle to get to a bowl game.

The Owls ranked 106th in Offensive Success Rate last season. They passed the ball 55% of the time (27th-most), but were 98th in Passing Success Rate and 90th in passing PPA. They didn’t run the ball much better, ranking 81st in rushing PPA.

They now lose their top two quarterbacks, top three rushers and top five receivers as this will be a total reset at the offensive skill positions.

Cam Fancher transferred in from Marshall to start at quarterback, but overall, this is a very inexperienced offense. SP+ currently has this unit pegged at 122nd in the preseason rankings.

The defense was better for FAU last year. It was 76th in Success Rate and 37th in Finishing Drives. This defense was great against the run, ranking 33rd in rushing PPA allowed, 49th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and eighth in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed.

The unit's biggest issues came against the pass, where it was 113th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 103rd in passing PPA allowed.

This season, the Owls bring back eight defensive starters and should be an improved unit overall. Whether they'll be able to hold up against a Big Ten front is up for debate, but the defense looks to be in good shape for the season as a whole.

Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview: New Start for Sparty

Michigan State is starting back at square one as new head coach Jonathan Smith will look to transform this program back to its previous heights.

Last season, the Spartans were 4-8, including just a 2-7 record in conference play.

This offense ranked just 121st in Offensive Success Rate last season. It was 127th on the ground and 103rd through the air.

Luckily for the Spartans, Smith is a good offensive coach and will look to revamp this unit. Smith brings over quarterback Aidan Chiles from Oregon State, who appeared in nine games as a true freshman last year, mostly in a mop-up role.

The Spartans return two offensive linemen and leading rusher Nate Carter, but much of this offensive identity remains unknown. Smith typically implements a run-heavy system, which will likely give Michigan State an advantage with its size.

Michigan State’s defense should be the best unit on the field in this matchup. It's ranked 26th in SP+ to start the season. This unit was only 93rd in Success Rate Allowed last season but 22nd in explosiveness allowed.

The Spartans return a whopping 10 starters when including transfers and should be improved from a season ago.

Florida Atlantic vs. Michigan State Pick & Prediction

The defense is the shining star for both of these teams. Michigan State, in particular, has a ton of returning production on this side of the ball and will hold a size advantage over a weak FAU offense.

Florida Atlantic’s defense isn’t a slouch either and may not be able to directly challenge MSU physically, but it could make things difficult for the Spartans.

Each of these teams is replacing a large portion of their offense and will have new quarterbacks to break in. It could happen, but this transition typically isn’t completed already in Week 1.

This under is already low for a college football game, but I’m still on it. Give me the under at 45 points, and I would take this down to 42.5 as I think this should be a defensive battle.

Pick: Under 45 (Play to 42.5)

How to Watch Florida Atlantic vs Michigan State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location

Florida Atlantic vs. Michigan State Betting Trends

• Three experts are currently on Michigan State spread, according to our Action Network expert picks.
• Michigan State has generated 60% of the tickets and 79% of the money.
• The over has taken 57% of bets but only 51% of the cash.

About the Author

Cody Goggin is a freelance contributor for Action Network. He specializes in handicapping the NFL, MLB and motorsports. Before joining Action in 2022, he worked for FTN and Student Union Sports.

Follow Cody Goggin @codygoggin on Twitter/X.