FCS Football Playoff Picture: Oct. 21 (Week 9)

After each week, we will take a look at each conference and examine which teams should be considered locks, contenders, or have work to do. 24 teams will make the 2025 FCS playoffs with 11 automatic bids (conference winners) and 13 At-large bids.

“Locks” are teams that have clinched an auto bid or have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid. “Should Be In” teams are on track to be in the playoffs, but must avoid slip-ups. “Work to Do” teams still need stronger resumes to have a shot at the postseason.

Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture conference by conference entering Week 9.

Big Sky

Locks: None
Should Be In: Montana

Montana is one of the teams that is very close to "Lock" status with a 7-0 record and one of the best wins in the country over North Dakota. With the Division II win, the Grizzlies need to get to eight wins to be considered a lock, even with an unexpected loss down the stretch. A win Friday over Sacramento State will likely move them into the "Lock" category. Montana still has a Top 3 seed out in front of them to play for.

Work To Do: Montana State, UC Davis, Northern Arizona, Sacramento State, Eastern Washington, Cal Poly, Weber State, Idaho, Northern Colorado

Montana State is very close to moving into the "Should Be In" tier, possibly even "Lock" status. The only thing holding the Bobcats back is their five wins. The Bobcats will be heavy favorites over the next three weeks. If they go 3-0, they would be a lock for the postseason. UC Davis is 5-1 overall, undefeated against the FCS, but has the disadvantage of its canceled Week 0 game due to weather. Obviously, the Aggies still want to win the Big Sky, but if not, I think the magic number for UC Davis is eight wins. That means they need to win three of their final five games. The toughest game will be Montana State on Nov. 15, but a Top 8 seed is still in play for the Aggies.

Northern Arizona is the Big Sky program with the next best chance to make the postseason, but needs to rebound from two difficult conference losses in the last two games. The Lumberjacks are 4-3, but have the No. 4 strength of schedule (SOS) in the FCS. They need to finish the season 4-1, and while they don't play any top conference teams, they play most of the middle-tier teams, and none of those are guaranteed wins.

Sacramento State is 4-2 against the FCS and is just clinging to a playoff hope. The Hornets will need to beat either Montana this week or UC Davis to end the season, as well as avoid tripping up against Eastern Washington or Idaho. Eastern Washington, Cal Poly, Northern Colorado, Weber State, and Idaho are only here because they are mathematically still alive, but need remarkable finishes to find their way into the postseason. One loss will likely eliminate any of these teams from playoff consideration.

CAA

Locks: None
Should Be In: Monmouth

Despite the bummer of seeing All-American quarterback Derek Robertson go down last week, Monmouth has successfully navigated the most difficult part of its schedule and is still 6-0 against the FCS. In its last five games, Monmouth faces the bottom four teams in the conference, along with a New Hampshire team that hasn't been competitive against good competition. That should be enough time for Robertson to prepare for the playoffs.

Work To Do: Villanova, Rhode Island, William & Mary, New Hampshire, Elon, Stony Brook, Towson

Villanova is in the best position to make the jump into the next tier despite the Wildcats only playing 11 games. The Wildcats are 5-1 against the FCS, with their only loss coming against Monmouth. They also already have wins over William & Mary and Elon, and have tricky remaining games against Stony Brook and Towson, but have a very clear path to eight wins. Rhode Island is 6-1 against the FCS, but has a bad loss to Brown, and it's entirely possible the Rams will not have a single win over a playoff team. The Rams have four games remaining and need three wins to secure a spot in the field. An 8-4 Rhode Island team would be extremely nervous heading into Selection Sunday.

William & Mary had a huge 26-21 win over Elon last week, improving to 4-3 overall. While the Tribe does not have an impressive resume, their remaining schedule is quite weak, and there is a real chance they could win the final five games. They'll likely have to do that to make the playoffs. New Hampshire, Elon, Towson, and Stony Brook are all barely clinging to this discussion with four losses. Each of these teams has potential quality wins remaining on its schedule, but all would need to win out to have a chance. Elon also has to hope Western Carolina keeps winning while Stony Brook and Towson play in a potential elimination game.

Ivy League

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Harvard, Penn, Princeton, Dartmouth, Yale

Harvard certainly appears to be in the driver's seat with a dominant 5-0 start to the season. The Crimson will be the favorite to win the auto bid, but with their weak strength of schedule, they would probably need to be 9-1 to garner at-large consideration. A potential 9-1 Harvard team on the bubble could create significant uncertainty for other bubble teams around the country.

The teams most likely to steal that auto bid would be Penn or Princeton. They are both still undefeated in conference play, with Princeton playing Harvard this weekend. The other teams still hovering around this conversation are Yale and Dartmouth. Both teams have one conference loss, but still have the opportunity to play Harvard, which keeps them alive. Yale also plays Penn in an important Ivy League game this weekend.

MVFC

Locks: None
Should Be In: North Dakota State, South Dakota State

These two teams are about as close to actual locks as you can get at this point in the season. You could even make an argument that a 7-5 South Dakota State would have a good chance of sneaking into the field. However, I think both North Dakota State and South Dakota State need to secure eight wins to guarantee a spot in the field, even with an unprecedented collapse down the stretch. Obviously, the Dakota Marker game is this weekend, and the winner of that game will move into "Lock" status and be the favorite to earn the No. 1 overall seed. A close loss may not even drop the losing team lower than No. 2 overall.

Work To Do: North Dakota, Youngstown State, South Dakota, Southern Illinois, Illinois State

North Dakota is easily in the best spot of all of these teams after two big wins over Southern Illinois and Youngstown State. The Hawks remain in this category because of their tough schedule, with games against South Dakota, NDSU, and SDSU still remaining. If they win one of those games, UND most likely secures its spot in the field. If they pull off an upset and win two of three, they are most likely a lock for a Top 8 seed.

Youngstown State, South Dakota, Southern Illinois, and Illinois State all have three losses now and are in a position to either fall out of the playoff picture or gain ground on the bubble. Each of these teams should be in the field if they can get to eight wins. The Salukis have a smaller margin of error due to a non-Division I win.

South Dakota has four games remaining, all against teams with postseason aspirations, starting with Illinois State this week. The Coyotes need to go 3-1, which includes a win over North Dakota or SDSU, along with wins over Illinois State and Southern Illinois. Youngstown State has five games remaining and needs to take care of business in three games against the bottom of the conference. Then they would just need to split games against NDSU and Southern Illinois to reach eight wins.

Illinois State must beat Indiana State and UNI, while also going 2-1 against South Dakota, SDSU, and Southern Illinois. The Salukis also need to rebound with wins against UNI and Murray State. They must secure a minimum of two wins against Youngstown State, South Dakota, and Illinois State.

NEC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Duquesne, Central Connecticut State

Unfortunately for the NEC, this will likely be a one-bid league this season, but the championship race promises to be a lot of fun to watch. It looks like the auto bid will come down to the winner of the Nov. 15 matchup between Duquesne and Central Connecticut State. Both teams are playing really good football and will be a headache in a first-round matchup for whoever they play.

OVC-Big South

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Tennessee Tech, Gardner-Webb, UT Martin

Tennessee Tech is most likely the league's only hope of receiving an at-large bid, and the Golden Eagles have not even played a competitive game yet this season. They are a huge favorite to win the OVC-Big South and make the conference a one-bid league. The Golden Eagles remain in the "Work To Do" tier solely due to their strength of schedule and lack of quality wins. They most likely need 10 wins to guarantee their spot in the field.

Gardner-Webb is hanging around this playoff conversation with only one FCS loss, but another loss will knock them out of contention. UT Martin is included here, even at 3-5 overall, after destroying Gardner-Webb last week. The Skyhawks have continually found a way to win this conference and are sitting at 3-1 in conference play. If they find a way to upset Tennessee Tech, they would mostly control their destiny to win the auto bid, unless Lindenwood were to win out.

Patriot League

Locks: None
Should Be In: Lehigh

Lehigh boasts a strong resume at 7-0, with wins over NEC favorite Duquesne and top Ivy League teams, including Yale and Penn. The Hawks will also be heavy favorites in their remaining five games, with a chance to secure a Top 6 seed. Three of their five remaining opponents have records below .500. Lehigh will likely need to secure 10 or more wins if they falter down the stretch and fail to win the auto bid, but it's likely they are locked into a Top 8 seed in the coming weeks.

Work To Do: Lafayette

Lafayette is the biggest threat to Lehigh in the conference race. The Leopards will not have a path into the field as an at-large, but at 3-0 in conference play, they do control their own destiny. In fact, as long as they beat Lehigh, Lafayette can still afford to drop one game before the end of the season due to the tiebreaker. That game will take place on the final weekend of the regular season and will likely decide who wins the Patriot League. Other bubble teams should be paying close attention to this race.

Pioneer League

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Presbyterian, Drake

Presbyterian and Drake are in the driver's seat for the Pioneer League title, both sitting at 3-0 in conference play. The Blue Hose picked up a huge win over Butler, and their toughest remaining test will be this weekend against Dayton. Drake has the tougher road, still having to play Butler and Dayton. Unfortunately, Drake and Presbyterian don't play this season, meaning both could finish undefeated in conference play. We will break down the tiebreaker scenarios later this season.

Usually, nobody pays attention to the Pioneer League race, but this year, bubble teams should be locked in if Drake wins the auto bid. In that scenario, you could have a 12-0 Presbyterian team on the bubble. The Blue Hose would have 10 Division I wins and head-to-head wins over Mercer and Furman. Obviously, their SOS will not be good, but it'd be hard to imagine that a 12-0 team would get left out in any scenario. This is something every team on the bubble should be watching.

SoCon

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Mercer, Western Carolina, Chattanooga

There are no teams locked or even close to lock in the SoCon after a brutal out-of-conference performance by the entire conference. Mercer and Western Carolina have two of the most fascinating resumes in the country. Both teams have made a quarterback change since the beginning of the season, and are undefeated since making a change. The committee does consider player availability, which is why the Catamounts were left out a few years ago due to an injury to Cole Gonzales.

The best-case scenario for the SoCon is that both Mercer and Western Carolina win their remaining FCS games, which would give the loser of that matchup eight wins. In that case, Mercer would be 8-3 and WCU would be 8-4 if they were to lose the head-to-head matchup. Historically, outside of last season, SoCon teams have had a good shot of getting in with at-large bids. However, Mercer cannot lose to Furman, while Western Carolina cannot lose to ETSU, and neither team can lose to Chattanooga.

Speaking of Chattanooga, the Mocs have a 2-1 conference record and games left against both of the top teams, which means they control their own destiny for the auto bid. Chattanooga has no chance for an at-large bid due to bad losses against Tennessee Tech and Tarleton State, but it still has a path to get in the field.

Southland

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Southeastern Louisiana, Stephen F. Austin, Lamar

The Southland has a real shot at getting three teams into the field. One of the biggest reasons is that Southeastern Louisiana and Stephen F. Austin don't play each other. The Lions are 5-0 against the FCS, while SFA is 4-1, with their only loss to Abilene Christian. Neither team will have an impressive SOS, but if SLU can reach nine wins, they will be in, and SFA will have a strong case at nine wins, even as an at-large selection with a non-Division I win.

Lamar is the other team in this equation, sitting at 6-0 against the FCS and holding a massive conference win over South Dakota. The Cardinals have flirted with losses the past four games, but found a way to escape with a win. They finish the season with games against UIW, SLU, SFA, and McNeese. They would love to win the conference, but if they go 2-2 in that stretch, Lamar will have a solid resume at 9-3, assuming the Cardinals aren't blown out in their losses.

UAC

Locks: Tarleton State

Tarleton State is the only lock in the entire country after Week 8, as they are the only FCS team with eight Division I wins, including an FBS win over Army. Even if they were to fall apart down the stretch, the Texans would have a good enough resume to get in the field at 8-4. Now, they have their sights set on fighting for a Top 2-3 seed.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Austin Peay, Abilene Christian, Eastern Kentucky, Southern Utah

The UAC is in a weird spot behind Tarleton State. Most people (and metrics) will tell you this is the third-best conference in the FCS due to the depth of quality teams. The problem is that means all of their conference teams have multiple trap games on their schedule, which could hurt them in the race for an at-large bid.

Austin Peay and Abilene Christian have the two best resumes behind Tarleton State. The Govs have a ranked win over West Georgia and a 20-point FBS win over Middle Tennessee State. The Wildcats have three ranked wins, standing at 4-2 against FCS opponents. However, both teams already have three losses and have yet to play Tarleton State. To feel safe, both of these teams will need to win all but one of their remaining games. Abilene Christian might be the best candidate to make the field at 7-5. ACU is projected to finish with a Top 10 SOS, and two of its losses are to FBS teams. However, this isn't a guarantee, and they are already 4-4, on the edge of being eliminated.

Eastern Kentucky and Southern Utah are only included here because they are still matchmatically alive, but must find a way to win all of their remaining games. One loss will knock each of these teams completely out of the playoff picture.