Final Predictions and Breakdown for NC State vs. Duke Game

A Harsh Reality

Containing Duke quarterback Darian Mensah was already going to be difficult for the Wolfpack defense, but it'll have to do so for a half without one of the key pieces of the group.

Defensive end Sabastian Harsh dominated throughout the first three games, but was ejected for targeting in the fourth quarter of the Week 3 matchup against Wake Forest. Because of that ejection, Harsh is suspended for the first half of the Duke game.

Mensah showed his strength throwing outside of the pocket throughout Duke's first three games. A consistent pass rush is paramount in stopping the young quarterback. Without one of the key figures on the defensive line, NC State might struggle to contain Duke's outside zone scheme and bootleg action throughout the first half.

It will be first-year defensive coordinator DJ Eliot's most difficult chess match in the 2025 season to this point. Given the Wolfpack's suspect personnel outside of Harsh and linebacker Cian Slone in terms of rushing the passer, it could be a difficult day.

Keeping Bailey Upright

Duke came into the season expected to field one of the nation's most talented pass rush units. Edge rushers Vincent Anthony Jr. and Wesley Williams are both capable of wrecking games. The former is off to a torrid start, having already racked up five quarterback sacks in just three games.

Williams and Anthony will be lined up against NC State tackles Jacarrius Peak and Teague Andersen, a duo that has held up nicely through the first three games of the season. If the tackles can hold out against the Blue Devil pass rush, it could be another big day for sophomore quarterback CJ Bailey.

Duke's secondary struggled against the deep ball and speedy receiving options, making Bailey's connection to senior wideout Wesley Grimes a dangerous one.

Ground and Pound

Tulane quarterback Jake Retzlaff eviscerated the Duke defense on the ground in the Green Wave's win over the Blue Devils last week. The quarterback ran for 111 yards and four touchdowns, ripping off one big run after another throughout the game.

The NC State rushing attack took things to another gear in the wins over Virginia and Wake Forest. The Wolfpack ran for 216 yards against the Cavaliers and 205 yards against the Demon Deacons.

The combination of Bailey and star running back Hollywood Smothers can give any defense a headache, especially one that allowed over 100 rushing yards to a quarterback in the game prior. Offensive coordinator Kurt Roper will almost certainly look to get Bailey running the ball if the opportunity presents itself. Duke will likely try to take away running lanes from Smothers, but the running back has proven he doesn't need much space to operate in the first three games.

Final Predictions

The Wolfpack has struggled mightily in Durham over the years, but Duke looks like a team fighting itself every week. The Blue Devils caught the turnover bug in the loss to Illinois and have continually struggled for lengthy periods of games defensively.

NC State will hold off the Blue Devils and win by a field goal on the road, moving to 4-0 on the season and 2-0 in ACC play.

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