Sep 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Michigan State Spartans quarterback Aidan Chiles (2) throws against the Southern California Trojans during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Final Predictions for Michigan State-Indiana

Originally posted on Michigan State Spartans on SI
By Jacob Cotsonika | Last updated Oct 17, 2025 3:00 PM ET

Michigan State (3-3 overall, 0-3 Big Ten) is headed into its toughest test of the 2025 season, as it will head into Bloomington to face No. 3 Indiana (6-0, 3-0) and battle for the Old Brass Spittoon.

The day before the game, Friday, means it is time for me to lay my prediction out there. On this not-so-optimistic episode of the Michigan State Spartans Insider Podcast, I break down this game and include a guess on what the final score will be. A shortened, written version can also be read below.

Watch the MSU Spartans Insider Podcast here:

When MSU has the Ball

Michigan State's offense has really struggled ever since the team's first bye week. The Spartans averaged a mere 3.5 yards per play against Nebraska and were at 3.4 yards per play through three quarters against UCLA (the Bruins led 38-7 headed into the fourth).

It is tough to imagine that Indiana's defense is the unit that MSU is able to turn things around against. The Hoosiers only surrender 229.0 yards per game to their opponents (fourth in FBS) and give up just 11.3 points per game (fourth in FBS).

One storyline was whether starting quarterback Aidan Chiles would be able to play or not. He left the game against UCLA with an injury during the third quarter and did not return. That would have left things to backup Alessio Milivojevic, but CBS Sports' Matt Zenitz reported Thursday that Chiles is "expected to be able to play" against the Hoosiers.

When Indiana has the Ball

The Hoosiers are not any worse on the other side of the football, and certainly have an advantage over MSU's defense. Indiana's offense averages just above 500 yards per game and is eighth in the FBS in that statistic. In terms of scoring, IU puts up 44.8 points per contest and ranks fourth nationally there.

A big reason for that is just all the talent IU has been able to accumulate. Starting quarterback Fernando Mendoza is a serious contender for the Heisman Trophy. Wide receivers Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. are both in the top 10 in receiving yards within the Big Ten. Left tackle Carter Smith is one of the best at his position in the country and has not allowed a sack this season, according to Pro Football Focus.

Prediction

Indiana is going to retain possession of the Spittoon. It's not going to be close, either. Both Michigan State's offense and defense have regressed this season, while IU has looked like a national title contender.

Hoosiers roll, and then some.