FIU vs. Western Kentucky Prediction and Game Preview

1. Can FIU Slow Western Kentucky’s Passing Game?
Behind quarterback Maverick McIvor, Western Kentucky leads Conference USA in scoring (33.7 points a game), yards per play (6.2), and passing offense (306.2 yards a game). After starring at Abilene Christian last season, McIvor (1,704 yards and 12 touchdowns) has been among the top Group of 5 quarterbacks through the first seven weeks.

McIvor has a deep group of receivers to target on the outside, including Matthew Henry (21 catches for 377 yards and three scores), KD Hutchinson (26 for 304), Moussa Barry (16 for 247), and Cameron Flowers (13). Tight end Noah Meyers (16 for 189) and running back Marvis Parrish (23 receptions) will also factor into McIvor’s options.

FIU enters Tuesday night’s game giving up over six yards a play and allowing 32 points a contest. Stopping the pass has been especially problematic, as the Panthers rank seventh in CUSA in pass efficiency defense and have surrendered six plays of 40-plus yards. However, Simmons’ defense could have extra help to battle McIvor, as cornerback Brian Blades II and safety Shamir Sterlin could return after missing time due to injury.

Will McIvor and WKU’s passing attack find opportunities for easy catch and run plays on Tuesday night? Or can FIU’s defense find ways to tighten up its coverage to keep McIvor in check?

2. FIU’s Ground Game
Could FIU’s best chance for an upset to use its offense to help protect the defense? The Panthers rank second in CUSA in rushing (175.6 yards a game), with Kejon Owens (463 yards), Anthony Carrie (191), and Devonte Lyons (117) forming a solid trio for Simmons to lean on. FIU has rushed for at least 130 yards in every game this year, including 224 over FAU and 160 versus Delaware.

Stopping opposing ground games has been an issue for Western Kentucky in ‘25. The Hilltoppers rank 11th in CUSA in rush defense, giving up 195.8 yards a game and 5.4 yards a carry. Those numbers are skewed a bit by the loss to Toledo (307 yards allowed on the ground), but Missouri State and Nevada both ran for over 200 yards on this defense.

The overall numbers for Western Kentucky’s defense isn’t bad, holding opponents to 22.8 points a contest and 5.7 yards a play. Helton’s group has been stingy against the pass, but the vulnerability to the run is an issue that could show up on Tuesday night.

3. FIU’s QB Situation
Keyone Jenkins entered 2025 as one of Conference USA’s top quarterbacks, but the junior ranks 10th among signal-callers in the conference in rating (108.4) and has passed for only 775 yards and two touchdowns to four picks. A tough schedule, revamped offensive line, changes to the coaching staff and scheme, and receiving corps have all had a role in Jenkins’ slow start. The Florida native left FIU’s loss to UConn on Oct. 4 due to an ankle injury but appears to be on track to start on Tuesday night. If Jenkins is unable to go, senior Joe Pesansky (14 of 22 for 168 yards and two picks) would get the start.

Is Jenkins indeed 100 percent? Or will another slow start for the offense force Simmons to give Pesansky an extended look under center?

Final Score Prediction: Western Kentucky 34, FIU 17

Western Kentucky has an edge on both sides of the ball and should improve to 4-0 in CUSA action with a victory on Tuesday night. FIU’s rushing attack can win some battles, but Jenkins and the passing attack won’t be able to keep pace with McIvor. Also, the Panthers’ struggles with turnovers (11 lost so far) is a concern on the road against the top team in CUSA. 

ATS: Western Kentucky -10
Over/Under: Under 55.5