Florida State vs. Virginia Prediction and Game Preview

College football’s Week 5 slate for the 2025 season continues with an ACC showdown on Friday night between Florida State and Virginia. The Seminoles and Cavaliers both entered the year looking for a program turnaround after combining for a 7-17 record in ‘24. With a combined 6-1 mark through four weeks, these two teams are clearly on the right track this fall.

Florida State was one of college football’s biggest disappointments in ‘24 with a 2-10 record. After nearly making the College Football Playoff the previous season, the two-win campaign was rock bottom for the program. Coach Mike Norvell wasted no time revamping his staff, bringing aboard veteran play-callers in Gus Malzahn (offense) and Tony White (defense). Also, the roster got a significant overhaul from the portal. So far, those changes have paid dividends. The Seminoles upset Alabama 31-17 in Week 1, crushed East Texas A&M 77-3 in Week 2 and Kent State 66-10 last Saturday.

Similar to Norvell, Virginia coach Tony Elliott was also on the hot seat entering ‘25. Elliott was only 11-23 through his first three years in charge, and the Cavaliers were a disappointing 6-17 in ACC play. But after an offseason of changes - headlined by a solid portal class that included North Texas transfer quarterback Chandler Morris - Virginia is one of the ACC’s most-improved teams. Elliott’s team handled Coastal Carolina 48-7 in Week 1 and easily defeated William & Mary (55-16) and Stanford (48-20). The team’s only loss came to NC State (35-31) in Week 2.

Florida State holds a 15-4 all-time series edge over Virginia. Friday night’s game marks the first matchup since ‘19. The Cavaliers have won two out of the last three meetings against the Seminoles. 

Florida State vs. Virginia Odds and Info 

Location: Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Va.
Kickoff: Friday, Sept. 26 at 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Florida State -7
Over/Under: 60.5
Announcers: Bob Wischusen, Louis Riddick, and Kris Budden 

Florida State vs. Virginia Keys to Victory

1. Can Virginia Stop Florida State’s Rushing Attack?
What a difference a year makes in college football. Last season, Florida State finished No. 129 nationally in rushing offense and averaged a paltry 2.9 yards per carry. Although the competition outside of Alabama has been questionable, the Seminoles are averaging 363 yards a game on the ground and just over seven yards per carry (7.1). A handful of players will see touches on the ground in Malzahn’s attack on Friday night, including quarterback Tommy Castellanos (139 yards) and running backs Gavin Sawchuk (160), Osumane Kromah (111), Samuel Singleton (168), and Jaylin Lucas (89). Additionally, receiver Micahi Danzy (173 yards) has scored a rushing touchdown in all three contests this year.

Castellanos hasn’t been asked to throw it much (12.7 attempts a game), but the senior has thrived when called upon. He’s connected on 71.1 percent of his passes and averages 15.6 yards per attempt. Also, of Castellanos’ 27 completions, seven went for 40-plus yards. The Cavaliers rank 11th in the ACC in pass efficiency defense, so Castellanos will have an opportunity to connect on a couple of big plays on Friday night.

Whether or not Virginia can pull off the upset could hinge on just how effective this defense is at stopping Castellanos and the deep cast of Florida State rushers. The Cavaliers rank fifth in the ACC against the run through four contests. However, NC State - the team with the best rushing attack Virginia played so far - ran for 216 yards on Sept. 6.

2. Virginia QB Chandler Morris and an Improved Rushing Attack
Similar to Florida State, Virginia’s offensive turnaround has been led by an improved ground attack and a transfer quarterback. The Cavaliers rank second in the ACC behind the Seminoles with 251.5 yards a game on the ground. Running backs J’Mari Taylor (298 yards), Harrison Waylee (214), and Xavier Brown (146) give Elliott plenty of options to test a Florida State front that ranks No. 21 nationally in defensive success rate against the run.

Contending with an improved ground game isn’t the only obstacle for Florida State. Morris has provided a spark for Virginia’s offense by throwing for 1,050 yards and eight scores. The senior’s eight touchdown tosses are already half of what the team accumulated (16) last season in 12 games. Morris enters Friday night’s game ranked 18th nationally in total offense (295.5) and tied for 17th in completion rate (70.8).

One injury that could loom large for Virginia on Friday night is the status of center Brady Wilson. After leaving the Week 4 game versus Stanford with a calf ailment, Wilson is listed as questionable for the matchup against the Seminoles. 

3. Turnovers
Taking care of the football has also been a strength for both teams and another reason for the turnaround from ‘24. Florida State and Virginia combined for 41 lost turnovers last fall but have just five entering Friday night’s matchup. Can the Cavaliers force a couple of takeaways and force the Seminoles to get out of their comfort zone on offense and throw the ball more in long-yardage situations? Or can Florida State force Morris into a couple of mistakes and make the underdog Cavaliers’ victory hopes even tougher?

Final Score Prediction: Florida State 34, Virginia 24

With a showdown against Miami on tap, a trip to Charlottesville against a much-improved Virginia squad has the potential to be a trap game for the Seminoles. However, last year’s 2-10 record clearly appears to be in the rearview mirror for Norvell’s squad. And with a talented offense finding a spark behind Castellanos, along with a defense that’s allowed only three touchdowns so far, expect Florida State to escape with a win.

ATS: Florida State +7
Over/Under: Under 60