Florida State vs Virginia Prediction: Can the Cavaliers Shock the ACC?

Florida State vs Virginia How To Watch

Friday, September 26, 2025
Game Time: 7:00 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
@PeteFiutak

Why Florida State Will Win

How much more tuned up do you want to be?

Florida State dunked on Alabama to start the season, scored 77 on East Texas A&M because it didn't want to score 100, and in a weather delay game, went through the motions and ran for almost 500 yards in a 66-10 win over Kent State.

The offense under new coordinator Gus Mazahn is fully clicking. Quarterback Tommy Castellanos has been fantastic, the attack is No. 1 in the nation, and No. 2 in rushing, No, 2 in yards per completion.

How did Virginia lose to NC State? It allowed over 200 rushing yards. Florida State should be able to rip that off without a problem. But ...

Why Virginia Will Win

Virginia has an offense.

The defense is fine, but it won't be able to hold up once the Seminoles get comfortable. That's okay - the Cavaliers have the parts to keep up

Chandler Morris is a talented veteran quarterback who's playing as well as anyone in the ACC, hitting 70% of his throws for over 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns. 

He's spreading the ball around well, there's plenty of help from the running backs to take the pressure off, and the line is giving everyone plenty of time to work. 

This is the offense everyone was waiting for when Tony Elliott was first hired. 

Florida State and Virginia will score plenty of points

It got lost in all the craziness of the win, but Alabama started throwing well in the loss. Ty Simpson ended up putting up over 250 yards with two touchdowns in the comeback attempt - the Noles can be thrown on.

But the Florida State attack will keep on pressing. 

The running game won't work right away, but the midrange throws will be there, and things will start to break open in the second half. It'll be scary for FSU for a bit, but right as TCU and Arizona State get going, this will be under control. 

It'll take a full sixty minutes, though. Virginia will put up late points to keep you watching. 

Florida State vs Virginia Prediction, Betting Lines

Florida State 37, Virginia 26
Line: Florida State -7, o/u: 60.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 4
Must See Rating: 3.50

Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.