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Greg McElroy Predicts College Football Playoff Team Will Regress in 2025

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Jaron Spor | Last updated May 25, 2025 10:00 AM ET

The 2024 College Football Playoff introduced a new dynamic to the sport. The postseason tournament expanded from four teams to 12, resulting in six teams making the playoff for the first time in their program histories.

Some of these teams were surprises, having not been expected to compete for a spot, while others were considered contenders before the season began. One surprising entrant was the Indiana Hoosiers, who finished the 2024 season with an impressive record of 11-2, despite being projected to finish second-to-last in the Big Ten.

This marked the best season in the program's history, but it ended in disappointment as Indiana lost in the first round to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 27-17. On his podcast "Always College Football," Greg McElroy discussed the Hoosiers' upcoming season and whether they can replicate their success from last year.

"They should be 3-0 in the nonconference," McElroy said. "Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State. Should be 3-0 there. If you look at their other wins, I think they can get Michigan State at home, UCLA at home and Purdue on the road. Now, you are at six wins automatically... The L's, I think you're not going to win at Oregon, and I have a hard time envisioning them winning on the road against Penn State."

In the best-case scenario for McElroy, the Hoosiers would finish the regular season with a record of 10-2. This would represent a decline from their 11-1 regular season record the previous year. To do this would require them to win every "toss-up" game on their schedule, which is likely to be hard to do.

Last year, questions arose regarding Indiana's football schedule. According to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), Indiana had the 35th-ranked schedule in college football for 2024 and was considered the 10th-best team in the sport. The Hoosiers managed to defeat only two teams with winning records, neither of which had more than eight wins at season's end. They faced just two teams with more than eight wins and lost those games by a combined score of 33 points.

This year, there remains optimism that 2024 was not a fluke. Indiana returns 61% of its roster, which ranks 44th in the country. Additionally, the Hoosiers are ranked 23rd in ESPN's SP+ rankings for the upcoming season.

Quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who threw for 3,042 yards, 29 touchdowns and five interceptions last season, will be a significant loss for the team. He will be replaced by California Golden Bears transfer Fernando Mendoza, who threw for 3,004 yards, 16 touchdowns and six interceptions last season.

Indiana opens the season against Old Dominion on Aug. 30.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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