Grok ranks college football's 12 playoff teams based on straight seeding model

A big change is coming to the College Football Playoff with a new seeding model ready to debut this season, as the committee will forgo the distinction between rankings and seedings, and simply award the 12 highest-ranked teams a place in the postseason field.

“After evaluating the first year of the 12-team playoff, the CFP Management Committee felt it was in the best interest of the game to make this adjustment,” College Football Playoff executive director Rich Clark said.

“This change will continue to allow guaranteed access to the playoff by rewarding teams for winning their conference championship, but it will also allow us to construct a postseason bracket that recognizes the best performance on the field during the entire regular season.”

What can we expect in what should be another historic College Football Playoff field? For that, we turned to Grok to get a preview of who will be seeded where.

1. Ohio State

Big Ten champion

What Grok said: “Defending national champions with a strong roster despite NFL Draft losses. SP+ rankings place them at No. 1, and their talent depth, led by a revamped offense and stout defense, makes them a favorite. Their schedule, including a key opener against Texas, is manageable.”

On SI says: A major change at quarterback puts the Buckeye offense in flux, as does the departure of two star edge rushers, but the rest of this roster can make a run.

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2. Georgia

SEC champion

What Grok said: “Georgia’s consistency under Kirby Smart, paired with a talented roster and a favorable SEC schedule, positions them as a top contender. They’re projected to win the SEC, with key players returning and a strong transfer portal haul.”

On SI says: The addition of two solid receivers in Noah Thomas and Zachariah Branch should help quarterback Gunner Stockton acclimate himself to this offense.

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3. Penn State

At-large

What Grok said: “Penn State’s strong 2024 performance (12-2, CFP quarterfinalist) and returning production, including QB Drew Allar, make them a top at-large pick. Their schedule is favorable, with Ohio State as the main hurdle.”

On SI says: Plenty of continuity on this offense, with Jim Knowles coming over from Ohio State to lead the defense, should keep the Nittany Lions in the mix all season.

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4. Texas

At-large

What Grok said: “With Arch Manning taking over at QB and a deep roster, Texas is poised for another strong season. Despite losing key offensive linemen, their talent and coaching staff keep them in the top tier. They face Ohio State early but should dominate most games.”

On SI says: The pressure is on Arch Manning to live up to that No. 1 billing as a recruit, and to that name on the back of his jersey, but he has a very solid supporting cast to make a run at the SEC.

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5. Clemson

ACC champion

What Grok said: “Clemson’s projected to win the ACC, with Dabo Swinney’s squad returning key players like QB Cade Klubnik. A tough opener against LSU is offset by a manageable ACC slate. Their playoff odds are strong if they go 11-2 or better.”

On SI says: The big favorite to make it back-to-back ACC titles, the Tigers return a quarterback coming off his best-ever season and a defense stacked with elite front seven tacklers.

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6. Alabama

At-large

What Grok said: “Under Kalen DeBoer, Alabama’s reloaded with a top secondary and rising star Ryan Williams. Their transfer portal additions and offensive firepower make them a playoff lock, even if they don’t win the SEC.”

On SI says: Who is the quarterback? The answer to that question and how he works with these receivers will determine how far the Crimson Tide can go.

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7. Oregon

At-large

What Grok said: “After a 13-0 regular season in 2024, Oregon remains a contender despite losing QB Dillon Gabriel. Transfer additions like RB Makhi Hughes and a strong recruiting class keep them competitive, though a slight step back is possible.”

On SI says: Dan Lanning has built a very solid program, but this season will test his roster-building acumen after losing plenty of contributors from that Ducks team of a year ago.

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8. LSU

At-large

What Grok said: “Brian Kelly’s best roster yet, with QB Garrett Nussmeier and a top-ranked transfer portal class, gives LSU a shot at the playoff. Their opener against Clemson is critical, but a 10-2 or 11-1 record should secure an at-large bid.”

On SI says: Kelly’s best roster? The proof will be in the playing, although Nussmeier is working with some solid skill targets. But how will the Tigers’ defense progress this year?

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9. Notre Dame

At-large

What Grok said: “As the 2024 runner-up, Notre Dame returns significant talent and benefits from independence, avoiding a conference championship game. Their schedule is challenging but manageable, making them a strong at-large candidate.”

On SI says: Riley Leonard is gone, and so is Steve Angeli, his heir apparent, but the Irish have a strong ground game to build this offense around.

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10. Boise State

Mountain West champion

What Grok said: “The top Group of Five team, Boise State’s consistent success and returning players like QB Maddux Madsen make them the likely G5 auto-bid. Their 2024 bye showed their potential, though they’ll face a tougher road without one.”

On SI says: While the Group of Five may seem more wide open with the departure of Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos return their quarterback and plenty of other contributors from their 2024 team.

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11. Tennessee

At-large

What Grok said: “Tennessee’s explosive offense and improving defense under Josh Heupel give them a shot at an at-large bid. Their 2024 playoff appearance and returning talent make them a fringe contender, though they face stiff SEC competition.”

On SI says: Grok’s confidence in the Vols is noteworthy given the giant hole that Nico Iamaleava’s departure left in their offense. Joey Aguilar is a proven producer, but he’s also prone to turnovers.

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12. Texas Tech

Big 12 champion

What Grok said: “The Big 12 is wide open, and Texas Tech’s high-powered offense, led by returning players and a favorable schedule, positions them as a dark horse to win the conference and secure the auto-bid.”

On SI says: Yes, the Big 12 is more open than most conferences in college football, and the Red Raiders doled out some serious NIL cash to put this roster in position to make a run at the CFP.

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