Has Penn State finally caught up with Ohio State?

A little more than 700 days ago, the balance of power in the eastern half of the Big Ten was readily apparent. Saturday morning, Oct. 22, 2016: Ohio State was ranked second in the country, Michigan was ranked third and virtually everyone else was irrelevant. And given the juggernauts that both appeared to be, that didn’t seem likely to change anytime soon.

Michigan State was struggling through a 3-9 season but felt like a perpetual underdog, Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers were in the midst of yet another cycle of perpetual wheel-spinning and Penn State was a lingering question mark. It was a team that appeared on the verge of bailing on third-year coach James Franklin, who was (and still is) viewed by some as more of a huckster than an actual football coach.

That night, a two-loss and unranked Penn State team hosted Ohio State, and while it was a night game and a home game for the Nittany Lions — just as this Saturday's game will be — even the broadcaster on the call, Chris Fowler, was “not expecting Penn State to win the game.” This was a reasonable assumption, but then Penn State blocked a field goal, returned it for a touchdown and beat Ohio State, 24-21. Penn State then won its final six games of the season before losing an epic Rose Bowl to USC.

The Nittany Lions have gone 24-3 since starting that 2016 season with a 2-2 record. The thought among those colleagues who considered Franklin one of the most overrated coaches in America was that his offense would struggle in 2018 without once-in-a-generation running back Saquon Barkley. Instead, Penn State has the top-scoring offense in the country behind quarterback Trace McSorley. And while the Buckeyes have gone 23-4 over that time, they would appear to be at a watershed given the aftermath of the suspension of Urban Meyer. 

Meanwhile, Michigan has gone 18-9 over that period, and the bloom of excitement over Jim Harbaugh’s hiring has largely wilted after a season-opening loss to Notre Dame earlier this month. Suddenly, the balance of power in what is arguably the most loaded division in college football (outside of the SEC East) feels very much in flux.

All of which means that as Penn State hosts Ohio State again on Saturday night, the Nittany Lions find themselves in the unlikeliest of positions: With a victory, they can — at least for now — lay claim to a position as the most formidable program in the conference. That hasn’t been the case for years, since long before Joe Paterno’s firing in the wake of the Jerry Sandusky scandal. And it arguably hasn’t been true since Penn State went undefeated in its second year in the Big Ten, back in 1994.

Those are the stakes for Saturday night. And while it’s possible that either Penn State or Ohio State could lose this game and still find itself in the playoff mix at the end of the season, the larger meaning is readily apparent. In 2018, Ohio State had the second-ranked recruiting class in the country, and Penn State was sixth. Another win for the Nittany Lions could easily flip those numbers.

All of this, of course, is tenuous. It’s possible that Meyer’s suspension doesn’t affect Ohio State’s overarching momentum at all. It’s possible that Michigan will recover from that Notre Dame loss and roll through the remainder of its schedule. And it’s possible that Franklin will falter again at some point and that Penn State is not fully there yet and not at the elite level to which Meyer has elevated the Buckeyes.

But it’s close now. It’s a real question. “Penn State was a different team” after that game, Fowler said, and how different it really is will be determined, once more, on Saturday night.