Hawaii vs. UNLV Prediction and Game Preview

1. Hawaii’s Passing Attack
Both sides of the ball deserve credit for the ‘25 turnaround, but the unquestioned strength of Chang’s team is its offense. Behind rising star quarterback Micah Alejado, the Rainbow Warriors average 302.4 passing yards a contest and rank fourth in the Mountain West in scoring (30.5 points a contest). In his first full year as the starter, Alejado has passed for 2,380 yards and 18 touchdowns and ranks No. 2 in the conference in per-game production (297.5).

Alejado has a standout cast of weapons at his disposal, including receivers Jackson Harris (42 catches for 731 yards), Pofele Ashlock (58 receptions), Brandon White (33), Nick Cenacle (20), and Karsyn Pupunu (28). Additionally, running back Landon Sims ranks fourth on the team with 31 receptions and has chipped in 487 rushing yards.

Hawaii has scored 30 or more points in five straight games. Can UNLV’s struggling defense find answers to slow this attack? The Rebels rank 11th in the Mountain West in yards per play allowed (6.6), give up 31 points a contest, and have surrendered 19 passing scores this year. Additionally, Mullen’s group has surrendered a whopping 30 plays of 30-plus yards and ranks No. 113 nationally in success rate against the run.

2. UNLV’s High-Powered Offense
It’s no surprise with Mullen at the controls that UNLV leads the Mountain West in scoring (36.6 points a game) and yards per play (6.9). The Rebels rank No. 16 nationally in success rate and have been held under 30 points just one time in ‘25.

Quarterback Anthony Colandrea is the catalyst for Mullen’s attack. The Virginia transfer has passed for 2,527 yards and 18 touchdowns and added 512 yards and seven scores on the ground. Running back Jai’Den Thomas (780 yards) is one of the Mountain West’s top playmakers, but he missed last week’s game against Utah State due to injury and is questionable to play on Friday night. If Thomas cannot go, Keyvone Lee (317 yards) and Jaylon Glover (297) will shoulder the bulk of the carries.

Hawaii’s defense has made progress under coordinator Dennis Thurman over the last two years and enters Friday night’s game ranked fourth in the Mountain West in fewest points allowed (23.7 points a game). However, in conference play, the Rainbow Warriors have allowed 6.5 yards a play. With the weapons on UNLV’s sideline, Hawaii needs to find a way to bend a bit to limit Mullen’s attack and not allow touchdowns once Colandrea gets this group into the red zone. 

3. Turnovers
With both teams atop the Mountain West in scoring offense, and a high-scoring game expected, winning on the margins could decide whether the Rebels or Rainbow Warriors end up on top. UNLV leads the conference with a plus-seven margin, while Hawaii is near the bottom with a minus-four total. Chang’s team lost 10 turnovers in its three defeats but has had only three giveaways in its last three contests.

Stealing an extra possession or scoring on a takeaway could end up as a massive advantage in a tight game.

Final Score Prediction: UNLV 34, Hawaii 31

This one should go down to the wire. Will the last team with the ball win? The Rebels’ balanced attack with Colandrea and the ground game should do enough in the fourth quarter to hold off Alejado and a Hawaii upset. 

ATS: Hawaii +3
Over/Under: Over 64.5