Sep 26, 2025; Corvallis, Oregon, USA; Houston Cougars wide receiver Amare Thomas (0) celebrates a catch and first down during the second quarter against the Oregon State Beavers at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

Houston Has Texas Tech on Upset Alert

Originally posted on Houston Cougars on SI
By Jon Alfano | Last updated Oct 3, 2025 3:19 PM ET

The Houston Cougars are 4-0 for the first time since 2016 and have already matched their win total from last season, but if they're going to keep their undefeated record beyond this point, they're going to have to work for it.

Saturday's game is probably the biggest for the Cougars in years, as they welcome the No. 11 Texas Tech Red Raiders to TDECU Stadium for a primetime showdown. The Red Raiders are widely seen as the best team in the Big 12 right now - and by extension, a College Football Playoff contender - so it's not too surprising that they're considerable favorites heading into this game.

However, that just means the Cougars have a chance to really turn some heads once again.

Josh Pate Assesses Houston's Upset Chances vs. Texas Tech

Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

On his self-titled podcast, college football analyst Josh Pate looked at the Cougars' chances of upsetting the Red Raiders, and determined that their defense will be the key.

"Now, Houston is top 10 in turnover margin, so they've taken the ball away so far this year," Pate said. "Behren Morton's given it away a few times. Joey McGuire has squashed any talk of quarterback controversy, anything like that, Behren Morton's healthy, he's going to start for them.

"Look, I just question, if Houston does put forth a strong defensive effort here - even if they do force a turnover, maybe they're plus-1 - can they score enough? Texas Tech can suffocate you. I think this is going to be a lower-scoring game, with the lower-scoring profile comes a little more variance in outcome. Eleven and a half's the number here, Texas Tech is favored by 11.5, I'm putting a 5.5 on it. Now, candidly, I picked Texas Tech to win and cover, but I didn't bet it, it was just a pick. I'm going to put a 5.5 on it, though. When you can play defense, you give yourself a chance.

The Cougars' defense has indeed been their strength this year, as they rank third in the Big 12 in both points allowed (13.3 per game) and yards allowed (265.5 per game). However, this game will be the toughest test yet, as the Red Raiders rank first in the country in passing yards (368.5 per game) and second in total yards (573 perf game).

If the Cougars can keep the Red Raiders in check, then they have a chance to shock the world. If it turns into a shootout, though, it will be difficult to match the Red Raiders' firepower.

This article first appeared on Houston Cougars on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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