How Clemson's Postseason Chances Improved Following Miami Loss

On Friday night, the ACC Championship game implications were shifted, and the Clemson Tigers saw a slight bump in their chances to defend their title. 

Currently, it’s a four-horse race for the chance to make it to the game in Charlotte, North Carolina. Virginia, Miami, Duke and Georgia Tech all served as the heavy favorites after the first seven weeks of college football to make the conference championship. 

However, with Miami’s loss to Louisville on Friday night, Clemson saw a small increase to 0.6% to win the ACC Championship, according to the ESPN FPI. Throughout the past several weeks, the Tigers had chances around 0.2%, with almost less than a 0.1% chance to make the College Football Playoff. 

The bump is not a lot, especially with the opponent that head coach Dabo Swinney and his team have to face on Saturday afternoon. In a rematch of the ACC Championship last year, the Tigers will face SMU at Memorial Stadium, and Clemson will be without its starting quarterback, Cade Klubnik, in the game. 

The small increase could also feed into the fact that the Tigers are starting backup Christopher Vizzina, also not knowing when Klubnik will return from his sprained ankle that was suffered against Boston College last weekend. 

The Mustangs are also looking to take advantage of the Hurricanes’ loss. SMU has a better chance to win the ACC than the Tigers do, having a 5.1% chance to go back to the College Football Playoff. The team is in control of its own destiny, being currently undefeated in conference play ahead of Saturday’s matchup. 

Clemson also needs a lot more to happen, similarly to how it was last season, if it wants a chance of making the ACC Championship, let alone the College Football Playoff, in back-to-back seasons. The Tigers need at least three losses by Georgia Tech in conference play to leapfrog them, due to the head-to-head loss that was suffered in Atlanta in September. 

As for Miami and Virginia, Clemson needs to hope that both of those teams have at least two losses to even see a chance of possibility. Both teams have easy schedules that should see them favorited in majority of games, meaning more upsets need to happen for the Tigers if they even want to think about playing. 

Duke also remains undefeated in conference play, though the Tigers can take control with a head-to-head matchup with the Blue Devils on Nov. 1 at Memorial Stadium. Still, Clemson needs a lot to happen from many different teams if it wants a shot of believing going into the ladder half of the season. 

Duke, Miami and Virginia all have over a 20% chance to win the ACC, with all three teams looking for its first College Football Playoff appearance in program history. 

For now, it’s focus on SMU, who haven’t lost an in-conference game over the last two seasons, looking to do it again in 2025. The Mustangs return dynamic quarterback Kevin Jennings, who was a problem to contain in last December’s matchup. The game was decided by a game-winning field goal as time expired, and SMU is looking for vengeance in Clemson’s own stadium. 

Kickoff from Memorial Stadium on Saturday is set for 3:30, and the game will be broadcast on the ACC Network.