Illinois Can Still Make the College Football Playoff After Indiana Loss: Here's How

Naturally, after a falter that planted the Illini face-first in the dirt, a question arises: Can Illinois still make the College Football Playoff? The answer is yes, and here are the two paths:

Illinois wins out

This one is fairly simple: don’t lose another game. If the Illini rattle off eight straight victories, three of which would come against top-notch teams in USC and Ohio State (and a tough road matchup at Washington), then they enter postseason play at 11-1, and likely with more momentum than any team in the country.

Although that would be quite the confusing resume (considering Illinois’ lone loss would be a 53-point thrashing), and although pinpointing where Bret Bielema’s squad would fall in the CFP would be quite a difficult task, there would be absolutely no way the committee could keep the Illini out of the mix.

As we saw in 2024 when a Notre Dame squad earned a spot in the field despite falling in Week 2 to a so-so mid-major team in Northern Illinois (the Huskies finished 2024 with a 4-4 record in MAC play), the CFP panel tends to reward forward momentum. And with the Fighting Irish eventually appearing in the national championship, there’s no reason to expect the CFP committee to change their ways in Year 2.

Illinois beats everyone but Ohio State and lucks into key Indiana losses

Let’s make one thing clear: The Illini cannot lose another game to any team in the 2025 regular season whose mascot isn't Brutus Buckeye and still make the CFP. And, obviously in the Big Ten, winning seven out of eight games is an unbelievably tough goal – making it one that would impress the college football world, and potentially earn Illinois a CFP bid.

So let’s go with the hopeful assumption that the Illini do just that, knocking off every opponent in their path except for Ohio State and, ideally for them, play the Buckeyes within single digits.

Bret Bielema’s club would enter postseason play at 10-2 – likely with the same record as Indiana (assuming the Hoosiers fall at Oregon and at Penn State).

And you don't have to be a college football savant to recognize the Hoosiers would have the tiebreaker over the Illini in that scenario. But if Indiana happens to drop an additional game – perhaps at Iowa next week – and finishes up 2025 at 9-3, then Illinois would likely be in.

So, yes, the Illini still control their own destiny – and even have the tiniest bit of wiggle room – especially if they string together some convincing wins to offset the lack of confidence the CFP committee surely has in them after Week 4. First up: a top-25 USC team that has already knocked off two Big Ten foes. Fortunately for them, at least in this matchup, the Illini may already have a leg up.