Insider predicts Michigan football punishment amid NCAA probe

Michigan football will finally hear a verdict from the NCAA regarding the sign-stealing saga, and fans are wondering what college football’s governing body has in store for the Wolverines after its long investigation into the program.

Some have speculated that a postseason ban could be in the offing, or that the NCAA could make a grab for Michigan’s national title, but ESPN college football insider Pete Thamel doesn’t think the final ruling will be that severe.

What does the NCAA have in store for Michigan?

What can Michigan expect? Apparently, it will have to fork over some serious money.

“We’re going to find out tomorrow any potential punishment for Michigan... which is likely to be a hefty fine,” Thamel said on The Pat McAfee Show.

“And there’s not an expectation there’s going to be any postseason ban, and there’s not an expectation that any of their accomplishments are going to be taken away.”

Sherrone Moore could be targeted

Michigan football fans will rejoice to hear their team’s national championship likely won’t be touched as a result of the NCAA’s investigation.

But their head coach could still find himself in the NCAA’s cross-hairs.

“The real news that’s going to come out of tomorrow is going to be regarding the suspension of Sherrone Moore,” Thamel added.

“What we’re going to find out from the NCAA tomorrow, is that accepted, or if they’re going to add any additional suspensions. Remember, he obviously deleted a threat of 52 text messages in this.”

Those text messages were allegedly sent between Moore and Connor Stalions, the now-former Michigan staffer and center of the sign-stealing allegations, and was a turn of events in the scandal that NCAA investigators were particularly bothered by.

Deleting conversations with the target of an NCAA probe is basically the dictionary definition of interference with an investigation, something the body looks very severely on.

Michigan already suspended Moore for two games of the 2025 football season, notably the third and fourth games of the year, against Central Michigan and Nebraska.

The school likely did so in the off chance that by showing the NCAA it was willing to suspend its head coach, then maybe the higher-ups won’t feel they have to add any more suspensions of their own.

Or that if they were to add more suspensions, it wouldn’t be for too long.

“As these things go, when you self-impose, it’s like buying a used car. You don’t go above the bluebook value when you make your first offer. You go below the bluebook value,” Thamel said of Michigan’s logic.

“So there’s an expectation that there could be a slight addition to it potentially. If you look at the history of these cases, when people do self-impose, sometimes it’s accepted, sometimes there’s an added [suspension], but it won’t be radically different than the two [games] that are already there.”

Michigan could appeal any further suspension levied against Moore.

But given how poorly the NCAA looks on perceived interference with investigations, most analysts believe the body will come down with further suspensions for Moore this season, and that any appeal would likely be struck down.

Which would likely mean Moore would not be on the Michigan sideline for the opener against New Mexico, or a critical Week 2 game at SEC opponent Oklahoma.

Michigan's sign-stealing saga

The scandal first came to light in October 2023, the season Michigan won the national championship, and the Big Ten suspended then-head coach Jim Harbaugh for the final three games of the year.

Sign stealing is not itself a violation of NCAA rules, but bylaw 11.6.1 prohibits “off-campus, in-person scouting of future opponents” in the same season.

Stalions is alleged to have purchased tickets for several Big Ten games and paid third parties to attend and film opponents’ sidelines to pick up their football signals.

Now it appears the scandal could be coming to an end, while Michigan awaits what the end looks like.

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