Insider Warns to 'Pump the Brakes' on Arch Manning 2026 Draft Hype

“I get that everyone’s excited,” one AFC college scouting director told Breer. “That run happened and people started talking—they’re almost surprised with that last name that he has that speed, and the ability to generate big plays with his legs, and he gets transformed into this elite prospect. The reality is we haven’t really seen him run the offense with any consistency yet. And that’s not his fault, he just hasn’t played.

“What are we looking at? You’d like to watch a quarterback in double-digit games to really evaluate them. … At other positions, you might get a feel after watching four games and have a good idea of who a guy is. The quarterback position is much different, it requires a much larger bank of film. You want to see him against a variety of different looks. In college, the talent is not as concentrated, so you want to see him against an Alabama or a Georgia.”

Manning, the No. 1 recruit in his class and obviously the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning, has great talent, and should become a true superstar this year for the Longhorns. With how little he's played, however, some scouts clearly view him as a wild card right now.

“You just don’t know until they’re really playing,” another AFC college scouting director told Breer. “Right now, the body of work is too small. We’ve seen big guys with talent, the tools, the arm, that don’t know how to process, and don’t have the accuracy to all levels of the field consistently enough. What we have on [Manning] isn’t nearly enough. You could guess, but that’s really all you’ll be doing—guessing.”

Whenever Manning decides to enter the draft, he will undoubtedly be one of the top prospects in his class. It's just not clear when exactly that will be.