Iowa State Cyclones Fans Won't Love ESPN's New Football Prediction

Matt Campbell and the 2025 Iowa State Cyclones are hoping to build on a promising 2024 season. Cam Skattebo and the Arizona State Sun Devils achieved what appeared to be in the Cyclones’ grasp last year: a trip to the College Football Playoffs.

Unfortunately, the Cyclones don’t get to start their 2025 season quite as high up on the college football mountain as they finished last year. Doubly so, ESPN’s SP+ data for the 2025 season doesn’t shape up promisingly for the Cyclones in the upcoming season.

ESPN released its updated SP+ rankings Thursday. Based on data analysis of returning production, relevant recruiting data, and recent success on the field, the Cyclones ranked as the No. 32 overall program in college football. As a result, three Big 12 teams ranked above the Cyclones: No. 18 Kansas State, No. 22 Arizona State, and No. 26 Texas Tech.

While Iowa State lost more production on defense than offense this offseason, the Cyclones’ biggest hurdle in the coming season will be replacing their top offensive producers from last season with Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel in the NFL. 

Overall, the Cyclones rank 41st in the nation with 61% of the team’s production returning in 2025. The offense will be returning 65% while the defense is returning just 57%.

Thankfully, quarterback Rocco Becht is part of that 61%. While he’ll have to break in a new class of playmakers around him, having a leg up at the quarterback position is sure to go a long way for Campbell’s offense.

The perceived strength of the Big 12 still plays well into the Cyclones’ favor, though. While Kansas State (17%), BYU (7%), Texas Tech (7%) and Arizona State (5%) have better odds of going 11-1 or better, those odds aren’t exactly sky-high. The Big 12 is still a wide-open race, and Iowa State still holds some advantages.

The Cyclones’ 2025 strength of schedule ranks 51st in the nation according to the SP+ data. The Cyclones avoid Texas Tech this year and get Kansas, another 2024 regular-season loss, back at home. One of the tougher tests will be in Week 1 against Kansas State, but that contest is also at home. Iowa State also gets its rematch against Arizona State in Ames, so the Cyclones are catching a few breaks in hopes of returning to Dallas for another crack at the Big 12 title and a spot in the CFP.