Sep 13, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Hank Brown (9) gets ready for the snap against the Massachusetts Minutemen during the fourth quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Iowa's Outlook Still Promising Despite Loss

Originally posted on Iowa Hawkeyes on SI
By Connor Mardian | Last updated Sep 29, 2025 4:00 PM ET

Iowa Hawkeyes fans are still reeling after the most recent 20-15 loss to the No.8 Indiana Hoosiers, and quite possibly for good reason. The Hawkeyes were presented with a golden chance to take down the Hoosiers after Zach Lutmer’s interception with 2:50 on the clock gave the Hawkeyes prime realty with the ball sitting squarely at the Indiana 29-yard line with 2:50 seconds to go in the fourth quarter and the chance to milk either Indiana’s timeouts or the game clock. In the best case, both.

Yet with backup quarterback Hank Brown’s sudden fourth-quarter appearance, and a missed field goal to come soon after Lutmer’s interception, the script was painted Indiana cream and crimson, as Elijah Sarratt's 49-yard reception touchdown pushed the Hoosiers over the finish line.

At the end of the day, it does feel wrong to try and spin that loss in a positive way, but it is worth noting that it was as great a performance against a ranked team that Iowa fans have seen in way too long a time.

Looking for more reassurance? Well, last week reported that Iowa had a relatively easy climb to a bowl game as ESPN’s FPI touted head coach Kirk Ferentz’s chance of landing a bowl game at 73.1%.

With the recent slate of college football games officially completed, it is time to take a look at how ESPN’s updated stats look.

For those needing a reminder of how ESPN’s 6+ wins and projected W/L stats are calculated.

FPI: “The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.”

6+ Wins: “Percent of season simulations in which a team won at least 6 games (typically bowl-eligible)”

Projected W/L totals: “Projected overall W-L, accounting for results to date and FPI-based projections for remaining scheduled games (and potential conference championship games). May not sum to a whole number because of differing number of games played in each simulation.”

With that red tape out of the way. Iowa’s 5.8-6.2 win projection is combined with a 72.5% chance of making 6+ wins. Not a massive drop-off at all, or even a drop-off in any valuable fashion, which should carry fans over nicely over this long incoming bye week.

This article first appeared on Iowa Hawkeyes on SI and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: