Is 2025 National Championship or Bust for Steve Sarkisian and Texas Longhorns?

The Texas Longhorns walk into the 2025 season with lofty expectations, with much of the excitement brewing from first-year starting quarterback Arch Manning. Many Texas Longhorn fans and college football analysts see the 2025 Texas Longhorns primed for a national title-winning season, but would the season be a failure if they don't finish on top?

On3's J.D. PicKell of The Hard Count podcast said recently that the expectations of winning a national championship for the upcoming season are totally fair for Longhorns fans to have.

"If Texas does not win a national championship, it is absolutely fair to call the season a failure." He said, "This is not necessarily my default view on things, I'm very slow to say title or bust or conference title or bust. But with the situation that Texas is in right now, with what they've done in the past couple of seasons, what Steve Sarkisian has done around Texas and elevated Texas to, I think this is a fair statement to make."

Texas Longhorns have Been Close To a National Championship and should be Even Closer with growing Key Players

From Sarkisian's first season in Austin, where he went 5-7 in 2021, to now back-to-back 10-plus win seasons, Sarkisian now has the Longhorns knocking at the doorstep of a national title. With back-to-back College Football Playoff Semifinal appearances, a Big 12 conference title in 2023, and an appearance in the SEC championship game in their first year in the conference a year ago.

Now led by Arch Manning, the hype surrounding the Longhorns is at another level. Manning, who for his first two seasons sat behind now Miami Dolphins quarterback Quinn Ewers, has had time to learn Sarkisian's system, and if his two starts from last year were any indication of what Manning can be, the Longhorns offense may hit a different level. In those two starts, Manning was 2-0, completing 41 of his 60 passes for 584 yards and four touchdowns.

Texas will find out how seamlessly Manning slides into the starting role right away with the big rematch against Ohio State to open the season, but the two matchups in November. But the biggest question will be how Manning looks when visiting the Georgia Bulldogs in Athens, and then hosting the Texas A&M Aggies will be a huge indicator not just of how the season ends but potentially a ticket into the SEC championship and seeding in the College Football Playoff.

As recent champions have shown, the old mantra of "defense wins championships" still holds strong, and the Longhorns' defense will have to play a huge part in it if the Longhorns are hoisting the national championship in January.

The defense a year ago allowed an average score of 15.31 points and allowed an average of 283.4 total yards. However, the Longhorns lost five key players to the NFL, among others, who will not be easy to replace, but are being led by All-Americans Michael Taaffe and Anthony Hill Jr., who will play key roles in terms of production and leadership. If Colin Simmons' freshman year was any indication of what he could do in his sophomore season, Texas should have a real threat off the edge among other exciting players on defense.

The talent Steve Sarkisian has built in his five seasons with the Longhorns has the college football world penciling in a national title for the Longhorns, will Texas be able to win its first national title since 2005 in 2025.