Is a Mississippi State upset against No. 1 Texas more realistic than we think?

While sitting around lazily scrolling through various social media feeds and rewatching another Conan O’Brien video on YouTube, something scary happened.

I had a thought.

And no, it wasn’t how much I like Conan O’Brien’s idea to improve baseball by giving batters the choice to go left or right after making a hit (which I do legitimately like, with a tweak or two).

My random thought was this: is Mississippi State upsetting Texas more realistic than we think?

Hear me out…

Yes, a lot of lucky breaks will have to go the Bulldogs’ way and one of them will have to do with the Longhorns’ quarterback with a famous last name. But it’s not as crazy as it sounds.

How could Mississippi State upset Texas?

Here are the main three things that will need to happen for this monumental upset to occur:

• Arch Manning gets hurt or falls way short of the hype around him headed into the season (e.g., Heisman favorite);
• Blake Shapen stays healthy, as do the other key offensive players on Mississippi State, and Jeff Lebby is able to run the offense that landed him the job in Starkville in the first place; and
• The additions to Mississippi State’s defensive line are successful and the offensive line changes Texas made aren’t successful.

Are any of those things really that crazy to believe will happen?

Manning has given us all the signs he’s going to be great and live up to his famous last name, but what if the hype is too much? What if, as a full-time starter, he’s revealed to have exploitable weaknesses?

Is it really crazy to think the Longhorns’ offensive line, that returns just one starter from a year ago, may be worse than last season, which could lead to a struggling run game and a quarterback either injured or running for his life on every play?

And if new players like Red Hibbler, Will Whitson and Jaray Bledsoe turn out to be great players for Mississippi State, it’s not crazy to think they could exploit a weak Texas offensive line.

Maybe the biggest stretch is believing a healthy Mississippi State offense could beat a Texas defense that’s stacked at every position with future NFL players.

But if the Bulldogs somehow hold the Texas offense at bay and the offense can score one or two touchdowns, maybe a field goal, and dominate the time of possession…it sounds a lot more realistic doesn’t it?

Realistic Chances?

10 percent.

Yes, even after all of that and convincing myself this is a realistic thing, I don't have much faith in it happening.

Even if every new defensive player for Mississippi State turns out great, there’ll still be a huge talent gap between them and the defense Texas will field.

And the same can be said about the talent both team’s offenses.

What I laid out above is just a few things that would help Mississippi State. More help would be appreciated, either from Mother Nature or from Texas having more injuries than the Bulldogs did last season.

Plus, let’s not discount the cowbells’ impact on the Longhorns.

So, yes, it could happen and it’s not as crazy as you might think…even if it’s not very likely to happen.