Is It Bowl Or Bust For Tony Elliott and Virginia Football This Season?

Virginia Football has not made a bowl game in Tony Elliott's first three seasons, but based on their offseason activity, that seems to be the goal. Elliott has brought in 30 transfers this offseason and the Cavaliers have one of the most underrated transfer classes in the country and one of the top ones in the ACC. To top it all off, UVA has one of the most manageable schedules in the ACC. They avoid Clemson, Miami, SMU, and Georgia Tech this season, four teams that are projected to be among the best in the conference.

This season is starting to have the feeling of bowl or bust and CBS Sports analyst Chip Patterson recently made that argument about the Cavaliers season:

"Year 3 had some real steps forward for coach Tony Elliott. It included the most wins (five) of his tenure, his best conference record (3-5) and his first win against a ranked opponent, taking down then-No. 18 Pitt on the road in early November. But what Elliott has yet to do is lead Virginia into a bowl game, something that the program enjoyed in three consecutive seasons under Bronco Mendenhall from 2017-19.

Virginia clearly understands the urgency of the moment. This is not a roster that is asking fans to wait for development or be patient, something made evident by the 30 incoming transfers across both portal windows. That's tied for the second-largest transfer class in the ACC among schools that did not have a coaching change. Among the group are some instant-impact additions like quarterback Chandler Morris. It might be an uphill battle winning enough coin-flip games against other bowl-hungry programs in the league, but if Elliott's evaluation and portal work pays off, there's a path to the postseason."

Virginia has not been bowl eligible since going 6-6 after the 2021 season, but they have not actually played in a bowl game since making the Orange Bowl in 2019 after going 9-3 and losing to Clemson in the ACC Championship.

Yes, it has been that long.

However, the newest 247Sports Bowl Projections do not paint a good looking picture for Eliott's team in 2025. Even with the schedule and the transfer class, UVA is nowhere to be seen in the projections. That would be a disappointment considering how the Cavaliers have approached this offseason.

Right now at Fanduel Sportsbook, Virginia's win total is set at 5.5 and that seems reasonable. They open the season at home against Coastal Carolina and the Chanticleers are not supposed to be one of the better teams in the Sun Belt. A telling game this season will be in week two, when Virginia goes on the road to face NC State. The Wolfpack are always tough to beat at home, but they have lost a lot of talent this offseason and are beatable. If Virginia can win that, a bowl game should be within reach.

William & Mary plus Stanford should be gimmes for the Cavaliers and at worst, they should be 3-1 to start the season. They will be underdogs at home vs Florida State, but the Seminoles have plenty of question marks as well and could be vulnerable to an upset away from Tallahassee. It is anyone's guess as to how they look this season.

Going on the road to beat Louisville might be too tough of a task but Virginia did almost clip the Cardinals last season. After a bye week, a home game against Washington State is not super intimidating considering their roster and coaching staff turnover this offseason and then another interesting matchup on the road at North Carolina. How the Tar Heels will look under Bill Belichick is anyone's guess.

All four November games are winnable. Cal and Wake Forest are projected to be among the worst teams in the league, though the Cal game is on the road. Duke on the road will be tough and then to finish the season, Virginia has their annual rivalry game with Virginia Tech. The path is there for Elliott and the Cavaliers to make a bowl game, but they have to prove it on the field.

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Additional Links

Fielding the Virginia Football Team with Exclusively Transfers

Madison Alaimo's Record-Setting Day Sees Virginia Women's Lacrosse Cruise Past LIU

ACC Quarterback Rankings: Where is Virginia QB Chandler Morris in the New 247Sports Rankings?