Is Louisville the TCU of 2023? Comparing and Contrasting the Two Teams

Roster Construction

Louisville and TCU were both veteran-led teams. From their Week 1 depth chart, TCU had 12 seniors, eight juniors, one sophomore, and two freshmen leading the offensive and defensive position groups. Louisville meanwhile had one graduate student, five seniors, 12 juniors, and four sophomores. 

Due to the NCAA giving everybody an extra year of eligibility after 2020, some players have played even longer than it looks. For example, Star Louisville RB Jawhar Jordan is listed as a Redshirt Junior. However, this is his fifth season, and he could return next year if he wants to.

Team Statistics

Through their first 11 games, TCU averaged 39.5 points, 204.6 rushing yards, 277.5 yards, and 482.1 total yards per game. Louisville, meanwhile, has averaged 33.2 points, 185.5 rushing yards, 256.3 passing yards, and 441.8 total yards. 

On the defensive end, TCU allowed 25.5 points, 143 rushing yards, 245.4 passing yards, and 388.4 total yards per game. The Cardinals give up 18.4 points, 98 rushing yards, 219 passing yards, and 317 total yards. The Frogs are much better on offense, but the difference is matched on defense.

Portal Usage

Part of what made the turnarounds so effective was portal usage. TCU brought in 14 players and five starters in the portal, compared to 25 new faces and eight starters from the Cardinals. 

The Horned Frogs portal class ranked 11th, while Louisville’s was 12th. Some notable players include TE Jared Wiley and LB Johnny Hodges for Texas Christian, QB Jack Plummer , and WR Jamari Thrash for Louisville.

Schedule and Results

TCU’s schedule last year was much stiffer than Louisville's. The Frogs put up ranked regular season wins over Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Texas. Two of the games, at Kansas and Texas, had College Gameday on campus, making the game mean more. Louisville has only played one ranked team, a home win over Notre Dame.

Interestingly, the Cardinals only play three true road games: at North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, and Miami. Games against Georgia Tech and Indiana were technically neutral site matchups.

Despite the easier schedule, Louisville has already picked up a loss, losing 38-21 at Pitt. Still, both teams have an impressive 5-0 record in one-possession games. Both teams also have five second-half comebacks. The Cardinals' regular season isn’t over, and they have a very losable game coming this week. They play Kentucky, a team that’s beaten them in the last four matchups.

Other Notes

Both team's defenses have had incredible games, but also ones they want to forget. Playing in DKR, TCU held #18 Texas to 10 points and 199 yards. However, they allowed 34 points and 476 yards vs SMU. Kansas scored 41 points and gained 540 yards on them. 

Meanwhile, Louisville held #17 Notre Dame to 20 points, 298 yards, and forced five turnovers. Duke only had 202 yards and was shut out. In addition, Georgia Tech scored 34 points and had 488 yards, and Miami put up 31 points and 486 yards.

Each team has also gotten strangely lucky with quarterback injuries. Dillon Gabriel, Jalon Daniels, Adrian Martinez, and Behren Morton were all injured in games against TCU. For the Cards, Riley Leonard was knocked out in the Duke game, and they no longer have to play against Jordan Travis in the ACC Championship game.

Conclusion

The two teams are similar, but last year’s TCU squad was better. They finished last regular season unscathed against tougher competition. Despite that, Louisville’s defense is better, and Jeff Brohm deserves his flowers for the incredible work he’s done. Even if his Cardinals win the ACC at 12-1, I don’t think they make the playoff due to a weak strength of schedule and many candidates.

This may be for the better, as it saves the Cards from a 65-7esk loss in the playoff. More importantly for Louisville is sustaining its success. TCU lost a lot of contributors, didn't replace them, and is 5-6 this year. That's inexcusable and can't happen for Louisville to keep momentum within the program.