Jacksonville State vs. Sam Houston Prediction, Game Preview

Jacksonville State vs. Sam Houston Keys to Victory

1. Gamecocks’ QB Controversy
It seems like Jacksonville State could be making a change at quarterback this week. Wimsatt, a transfer from Kentucky, has started every game this season and contributes in a big way as a rusher. However, it was Creel who gave the offense a spark last week when he took over under center. Although Creel threw two interceptions, he ran for 161 yards — more than Wimsatt has recorded in his last three games combined. Only four teams run at a higher rate than the Gamecocks, who rely heavily on running back Cam Cook. Wimsatt is more experienced than Creel, a freshman, and there’s a chance they both see the field against one of the worst passing defenses in the country.

2. Cam Cook vs. Bearkats’ Defensive Front
Jacksonville State ranks sixth nationally in rushing yards per game (261.4), and Cook is also sixth individually (614). The TCU transfer has recorded 20-plus carries in each of his past four games, but he had his most inefficient outing last time out against Southern Miss. There’s a chance he could also struggle to get going against Sam Houston. There’s not much the Bearkats do well on defense, but stopping the run is their strength on that side of the ball. Sam Houston just held New Mexico State under 100 yards on the ground and has held up relatively well aside from its game against Texas. If Cook is unable to get going on the ground, more pressure falls on Wimsatt or Creel to move the ball through the air.

3. Late-Down Efficiency
With dual-threat quarterback Hunter Watson leading the offense, the Bearkats have far and away the worst third-down conversion rate (15.6%) in the FBS. They’re not much better on fourth down (33.3%). On defense, Sam Houston allows third-down conversions at the second-highest rate (55.1%) and allows opponents to move the chains on fourth down 80% of the time. That’s a deadly combination of not being able to stay on the field on offense or get off the field on defense, which explains the team’s poor time of possession. The Gamecocks are plagued by similar struggles on late downs defensively, but they convert at a high rate on third (45.8%) and fourth down (66.7%) on offense. Sustaining long drives and keeping Sam Houston’s struggling defense on the field could be key to a road win.

Score Prediction: Jacksonville State 31, Sam Houston 20

The Bearkats have not inspired much confidence this season, considering they’ve yet to score more than 24 points and have allowed at least 37 every time they’ve taken the field. A home game against a Gamecocks team that could be trying something new at quarterback could be a chance to get in the win column. However, Sam Houston was favored last week against New Mexico State and lost by four scores all the same. The defense can’t get stops and the offense has yet to put up enough points to stay competitive. Jacksonville State should roll on the road and return to .500.

ATS: Jacksonville State -7.5
O/U: Under 54.5