James Madison vs. Western Kentucky Prediction

The 2024-25 college football postseason continues on Wednesday, Dec. 18 with Western Kentucky and James Madison meeting in the Boca Raton Bowl. This game takes place at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Fla. This is the first time the Hilltoppers and Dukes have met on the gridiron. 

Despite a major roster turnover and coaching transition after Curt Cignetti left James Madison for Indiana, the program maintained its place as one of the best in the Sun Belt. The Dukes finished 8-4 under first-year coach Bob Chesney and picked up key wins against North Carolina (70-50), Old Dominion (35-32), Coastal Carolina (39-7). Two of the team's losses came by two points. 

Western Kentucky has been a consistent winner in Conference USA under coach Tyson Helton. The Hilltoppers have won at least eight games in five of the last six seasons, including an 8-5 mark in '24. WKU's win over Jacksonville State on Nov. 30 clinched a spot in the CUSA title game, but Helton's team was defeated by the Gamecocks a week later (52-12) for the conference crown. 

Western Kentucky is 4-1 in bowl games under Helton. James Madison has only one bowl trip under its belt at the FBS level, with the FBS newcomer losing 31-21 to Air Force last season. 

Western Kentucky vs. James Madison

Boca Raton Bowl
Location: FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Fla.
Kickoff: Wednesday, Dec. 18 at 5:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: James Madison -7
Over/Under: 51.5
Announcers: Chris Cotter, Mark Herzlich, and Coley Harvey

Why Western Kentucky Will Win

James Madison enters Wednesday night's game shorthanded at quarterback, and Western Kentucky should have an edge at this position with Caden Veltkamp suiting up. Although Veltkamp is in the transfer portal, the sophomore is expected to start and has a chance to build on a strong regular season (2,806 yards and 23 TDs) after taking over the No. 1 role when T.J. Finley was lost due to injury.

Veltkamp has a deep group of weapons at his disposal to test a James Madison pass defense that ranked No. 8 nationally in success rate. Kisean Johnson (66 catches) is the go-to option, with Easton Messer (52 - also in portal but could play on Wednesday), K.D. Hutchinson (22), and Dalvin Smith (29) also in the mix. Running back Elijah Young (43 catches) is a factor as a safety valve, along with his work on the ground (846 yards).

Western Kentucky's defense has experienced its share of uneven play this year, ranking No. 105 nationally in success rate and giving up 5.94 yards a play. Stopping the run (221.9 yards a game allowed) has been especially problematic. However, with the Dukes down to their No. 3 quarterback, Helton's defense can focus on stuffing the ground game and making the new signal-caller prove he can win through the air. 

Why James Madison Will Win

With Alonza Barnett III and Dylan Morris out due to injury, James Madison is expected to turn to Billy Atkins at quarterback on Wednesday. Atkins has attempted 46 passes in his career with the Dukes and made one start in in the '22 campaign. Although Atkins has a lot of pressure on his shoulders in his first look at extended action this year, JMU can lean on a team effort to win this one.

Running backs George Pettaway (880 yards) and Wayne Knight (427) should be able to find plenty of room to operate against a Western Kentucky defense allowing 221.9 rushing yards a game. And when Atkins needs to throw, Yamir Knight (49 catches), Omarion Dollison (31), Cam Ross (37), and tight end Taylor Thompson (32) provide a strong group of weapons on the outside. Even though Atkins needs time to knock off the rust, he should benefit from extra time to work with the starters. Also, it doesn't hurt Western Kentucky's defense could be missing a few pieces due to portal entries. 

In addition to leaning on the ground game, Chesney will also ask a lot from his defense. James Madison led the Sun Belt in fewest points allowed (20.8 a game) and surrendered only 4.83 yards a snap this year. Also, the Dukes limited opposing passers to just a 53.6 completion rate and ranked first in the conference in rush defense. This unit also thrived at getting pressure (38 sacks) and gave up only nine plays of 40-plus yards.

Final Analysis

Considering the injuries and transfer question marks for both teams, this is a tough matchup to get a read on. Even though he's in the portal, Veltkamp suiting up on Wednesday provides Western Kentucky's offense a chance to operate at a high level. The inexperience of Atkins is a concern, but James Madison can lean on its defense and rushing attack to score a close victory. 

Prediction: James Madison 27, Western Kentucky 24