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Missouri Tigers head coach Eli Drinkwitz faces a tough contest in this week's matchup against the Alabama Crimson Tide. Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Josh Pate picks Alabama-Missouri winner on Saturday

Originally posted on CFB-HQ on SI | By Matt De Lima | Last updated Oct 9, 2025 1:00 PM ET

Columbia will be the site of a major SEC clash on Saturday when No. 8 Alabama travels to No. 14 Missouri. On Tuesday night’s episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show, the national analyst examined the matchup and ultimately sided with the Crimson Tide to win and cover. He described the atmosphere in Columbia as “huge” and credited Missouri for its progress under head coach Eliah Drinkwitz, but acknowledged his confidence in Alabama’s ability to handle the challenge.

“Alabama is my national champion [pick]. Okay. I need them. I need them winning. Is that bias? Slightly. So, I’m going to very slightly lean Alabama to win the game and cover,” Pate said.

The matchup will showcase Missouri’s top-ranked rushing defense against one of the country’s most efficient passing offenses. Alabama enters at 4-1 after consecutive wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt, while Missouri sits at 5-0 following a bye week.

Defensive Matchup Headlines Alabama’s Road Test

Missouri’s defense has been one of the best in the nation, ranking second overall, first against the run, and tenth against the pass. The Tigers have leaned on their physical front, led by defensive end Zion Young, edge rusher Damon Wilson, and lineman Chris M’bemba.

Pate highlighted Missouri’s pressure rate being second-best in the country and warned that Alabama’s offensive line, which continues to rotate players, will be tested more severely than it was against Georgia.

Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

He also credited Drinkwitz for steady improvement across five seasons, noting that the program went 17-19 in his first three years before turning a corner with a 26-5 record since.

Pate said Missouri’s defensive profile “looks elite on paper,” but added that this matchup will reveal whether that strength holds up against a top-10 opponent.

Alabama’s Efficiency Could Decide The Outcome

Alabama has found balance behind quarterback Ty Simpson, who has thrown for 1,478 yards, 13 touchdowns, and just one interception. The Crimson Tide offense ranks fifth nationally in passing and 30th in scoring, while the defense sits 20th overall. Pate highlighted Alabama’s nation-leading turnover margin and 17th-ranked third-down efficiency as key advantages that could offset Missouri’s defensive front.

Missouri’s offense, led by quarterback Beau Pribula and running back Ahmad Hardy, will test Alabama’s 88th-ranked rushing defense. Hardy leads the SEC with 730 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, while Pribula has completed nearly 76 percent of his passes.

Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Pate said that game flow will determine whether Missouri can rely on its ground game or be forced into obvious passing situations against Alabama’s secondary.

His final verdict reflected cautious optimism: “I think they are the better team. The dynamics are definitely against them in this game.”

Missouri will host Alabama for its Week 7 matchup on Saturday at noon ET on ABC.

This article first appeared on CFB-HQ on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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