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Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia and the Commodores host the LSU Tigers on Saturday. Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Josh Pate picks winner of LSU-Vanderbilt game

Originally posted on CFB-HQ on SI | By Matt De Lima | Last updated Oct 16, 2025 8:00 AM ET

The LSU Tigers and Vanderbilt Commodores are both 5-1 heading into a pivotal SEC matchup in Nashville, and few could have predicted Vanderbilt would be the betting favorite. Yet, as Josh Pate noted on his College Football Show, that is exactly the case. Pate went on record this week picking the Commodores to win and cover, citing Vanderbilt’s physicality and LSU’s inconsistency on offense as deciding factors.

Pate said, “Boy, I’m on the fence about this. And we already made the graphic for LSU. I’ll—I’ll go Vandy. I’ll take Vanderbilt to win. It’s crazy you’re talking like this with a point spread favorite. I like LSU, man, but I think Vanderbilt’s going to win the game. All right, I’ll take Vandy to win and cover.”

That call reflects just how much the Commodores’ stock has risen under head coach Clark Lea. Vanderbilt’s balanced offense, led by quarterback Diego Pavia, is averaging 43.2 points per game, while LSU’s offense remains inconsistent behind quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. The Tigers’ defense has carried them this season, but Pate is skeptical LSU’s offensive progress against South Carolina will translate to the road.

Josh Pate Explains Why He Picked Vanderbilt to Beat LSU

Pate outlined his thought process on the show, describing a mix of data, instinct, and what he called the “thin ice theory.” He praised LSU’s recent improvement, especially in the run game, but questioned its sustainability against Vanderbilt’s defense. “LSU at Vanderbilt, 11:00 a.m. local kick. This trip, a very short one, will be fueled by Quick Trip. LSU’s coming in with some juice after beating South Carolina last week. Speaking of leaving meat on the bone, how about LSU? Ground game finally woke up a little bit, didn’t it? 5.5 yards per carry. LSU, in this economy, running the ball? Was that real? You guys really mean that?”

Even with that progress, LSU still ranks 113th nationally in rushing offense, a troubling figure against Vanderbilt’s defense, which sits 16th against the run. Pate noted that Vanderbilt “is not just waltzing into Nashville and running all over Clark Lea.”

Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

He pointed out that while LSU showed potential after the bye week, the Tigers still lack a proven offensive identity. Nussmeier has thrown interceptions in four of his last five games, and Vanderbilt ranks in the top 30 nationally in takeaways.

That combination of road turnovers and Vanderbilt’s physical front led Pate to flip his pick from LSU to the Commodores during the live broadcast. “I walked out onto the set tonight and I was going to pick LSU to win,” he said. “The more I think about Vandy’s season and how it could go versus how it’s gone so far, it’s a little bit of a crossroads moment. I go back to the thin ice theory. I need to see it one more time from LSU on the road before I’m ready to fully believe.”

Vanderbilt’s Growth Under Clark Lea Creates Real Playoff Stakes

Saturday’s matchup carries rare implications for Vanderbilt, which enters ranked No. 17 nationally and is very much in the playoff conversation. The Commodores’ lone loss came to Alabama, and they have one of the nation’s most efficient offenses, ranking 19th in total yards per game. Pavia’s dual-threat ability has powered a group that ranks seventh in scoring and second in third down conversion rate at 57.9%.

Head coach Brian Kelly acknowledged the challenge ahead, saying LSU must “make him one-dimensional” to avoid letting the quarterback dictate tempo. The Tigers counter with a defense allowing just 11.8 points per game, fifth-best in the country. But Vanderbilt’s bye week and home-field advantage give them additional confidence entering Saturday.

Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

As Pate said, “You hadn’t seen them since that Bama game because they had a bye last week. You’re getting Vandy’s best coming out of the bye. Like they didn’t go anywhere. They’re a one-loss team. They’re a top 25 team.”

The Commodores have an opportunity to snap LSU’s 10-game winning streak in the series and redefine expectations for the program under Lea. The game will kick off Saturday at noon ET on ABC in Nashville.

This article first appeared on CFB-HQ on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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