Liberty vs. UTEP Prediction and Game Preview

1. UTEP’s Quarterback Situation
Former five-star prospect Malachi Nelson transferred from Boise State to UTEP this offseason and claimed the starting job out of fall practice over Skyler Locklear. Through five games, Nelson has been up-and-down in his overall play. The sophomore is completing 55.6 percent of his throws for 1,142 yards and eight touchdowns. Among CUSA signal-callers, Nelson is eighth in yards per attempt (6.3). Additionally, he leads the nation with nine interceptions in ‘25.

In UTEP’s 30-11 loss to Louisiana Tech, Walden turned to Locklear after Nelson tossed four picks. Locklear - a nine-game starter in ‘24 threw for 74 yards and one touchdown. If Nelson struggles once again, could Walden turn to Locklear to spark this attack?

UTEP enters Wednesday night’s game averaging only 5.2 yards a play and ranks eighth in CUSA in scoring (20.8 points a game).

2. Liberty’s Question Marks on Offense
Similar to UTEP, Liberty’s offense enters Wednesday night’s game with question marks under center. Quarterback Ethan Vasko (226.3 total yards a game) did not play in the team’s last game on Sept. 27 at Old Dominion due to a shoulder injury. Michael Merdinger (6 of 11 for 77 yards) started in place of Vasko and would get the call again if Vasko is unable to go. Chadwell seemed optimistic this week about Vasko’s return, which would be a huge boost for a Flames’ offense averaging only 17 points a game.

Even if Vasko plays, the matchup that could make-or-break this game is the battle of Liberty’s rushing attack against UTEP’s defense. The Flames rank third in CUSA in rushing (167.2 yards a game) behind a handful of options, including running backs Evan Dickens (344), Caden Williams (210), and Julian Gray (76). Vasko (142) is also a contributor to the ground game when healthy.

UTEP’s defense won’t make things easy for Liberty’s offense on Wednesday night. The Miners rank No. 25 nationally in defensive success rate and limit teams to just 4.96 yards a snap. This unit leads CUSA in sacks (15) and gives up just 3.6 yards a rush. 

3. UTEP’s Skill Talent against Liberty’s Defense
If UTEP’s offense can avoid the turnover bug that’s plagued this group through five games, the skill players will give Liberty’s defense a ton of trouble. Running back Hahsaun Wilson has rushed for 205 yards and a touchdown on just 31 carries, with freshman Ashten Emory (141) also churning out solid yardage. Despite losing standout Kam Thomas to a season-ending injury, Nelson (or Locklear) has ample weapons on the outside with Kenny Odom (23 catches), Trevon Tate (19), Toric Goins (11), and Wondame Davis (eight).

Liberty’s defense struggles to generate pressure with just five sacks in five games and ranks eighth in CUSA in third-down defense. The Flames have been stingy against the pass (No. 17 nationally in success rate), but the rush defense has been an issue (225 yards a game allowed).

Final Score Prediction: Liberty 23, UTEP 20

These two teams have combined for 20 lost turnovers so far in ‘25. Whichever team does a better job at limiting mistakes, along with the play of two offenses needing improvement from the quarterbacks, is likely to come out on top. 

ATS: Liberty -1.5
Over/Under: Under 47.5