Louisville vs. Miami Prediction and Game Preview

1. Louisville’s Offensive Line
If Louisville is going to pull off the upset on Friday night, the offensive line must play its best game of the ‘25 season. This unit has allowed 13 sacks in five games, while rushers are averaging only 3.8 yards per carry - down significantly from 5.7 in ‘24. Led by Athlon Sports’ midseason All-Americans in Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor, Miami’s front is one of the best in college football. Opposing offenses are averaging only 2.8 yards per carry versus the ‘Canes, while only one of the team’s first five opponents eclipsed 100 rushing yards (Florida State). Also, with Mesidor and Bain leading the way, Miami has registered 12 sacks in ‘25 and should have no trouble pressuring Louisville quarterback Miller Moss on Friday night.

Brohm hinted earlier this week the Cardinals could play another quarterback (most likely redshirt freshman Deuce Adams) - to add more mobility for a package of plays under center. Moss has been solid through the air (67 percent completion rate) but has also tossed four picks. If the offensive line gives Moss enough time to throw, Chris Bell (35 catches), Caullin Lacy (27), and tight end Jaleel Skinner (12) will test Miami’s secondary.

After a standout freshman season, running back Isaac Brown (334 yards) is off to a bit of a slow start. Finding running lanes against this Miami front won’t be easy. But the Cardinals need to find a way to generate some production on the ground and alleviate some of the pressure on Moss against this pass rush.

2. Miami QB Carson Beck
The health of Beck’s right elbow after season-ending surgery at Georgia last year was one of the biggest preseason unknowns surrounding Miami. So far, the senior has yet to show many ill-effects from that ailment. He’s passed for 1,213 yards and 11 touchdowns and connected on 73.4 percent of his throws. Also, Beck has tossed only three interceptions over 139 attempts.

In addition to Beck’s health, Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps was under the microscope. So far, so good here as well. True freshman Malachi Toney (29 receptions for 375 yards) has emerged as one of the nation’s top receivers, with CJ Daniels (23) and Keelan Marion (11) up next.

Similar to Beck and Miami’s receiving corps, Louisville’s secondary entered ‘25 with question marks after an up-and-down ‘24. The Cardinals have yet to allow a quarterback to throw for more than 260 yards and have picked off six passes over the team’s last four games. Additionally, coordinator Ron English’s group has allowed just one completion of 40-plus yards.

Can Louisville use a combination of a steady pass rush (14 sacks) and improved coverage to slow Beck? 

3. Can Louisville Slow Miami’s Rushing Attack?
The battle in the trenches looms large on Friday night. Miami’s offensive line is arguably one of the best in college football and will make things difficult for a Louisville front holding teams to just 3.3 yards per rush. The Cardinals have held three of their first five opponents to under 100 rushing yards, but the Hurricanes have the best combination of line and running back talent out faced so far.

Mark Fletcher headlines the backfield for Cristobal with 428 yards and five scores, but CharMar Brown (225 yards) will see plenty of carries.

As a double-digit underdog, Louisville needs a lot to go its way on Friday night. Winning the battle in the trenches to slow Miami’s ground game and generate pressure on Beck on passing downs is a must. 

Final Score Prediction: Miami 31, Louisville 20 

The Cardinals have the offensive firepower to cover the spread, but Miami’s strength in the trenches will show up in the fourth quarter. Cristobal and the ‘Canes should move to 6-0 start for the second year in a row.

ATS: Louisville +13.5
Over/Under: Over 50.5