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LSU Tigers vs. Clemson Tigers football game prediction 2025 Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images

LSU vs. Clemson new football prediction: What the analytics say

Originally posted on CFB-HQ on SI | By James Parks | Last updated Aug 27, 2025 11:51 AM ET

LSU and Clemson face off in college football’s marquee 2025 season opener on Saturday night in a battle of top 10 teams with huge early playoff implications. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

Clemson, which debuted at No. 4 in the initial AP top 25 football rankings this season, is the consensus favorite to win a second-straight ACC Championship, but its playoff bona fides will be tested at home against a team with designs on winning the SEC.

LSU, at No. 9 in the first poll, has never won a season opener with Brian Kelly as the head coach, and he faces a tall order in this matchup.

But his Tigers come well equipped, returning quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who last season piloted college football’s 7th ranked passing attack, a cadre of very promising receivers, and a defense that returns star Harold Perkins to the middle of the field.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

LSU vs. Clemson football prediction

Something of a rarity, but on this occasion, the computer models are siding against the SEC team in a game, and going with the home side under the lights.

Clemson is the narrow favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in the majority 53.8 percent of the computer’s simulations to win the 2025 season opener straight-up.

That leaves LSU as the projected outright winner in the remaining 46.2 percent of sims.

In total, Clemson came out ahead in the majority 10,760 of the computer’s simulations of the game, while LSU edged out its ACC counterpart in the other 9,240 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect things to come down to the very last second at Memorial Stadium.

Clemson is projected to be just 0.9 points better than LSU on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough to cover the narrow point spread in this matchup.

That’s because Clemson is a 3.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Clemson at -176 and for LSU at +146 to win the game outright.

Where the money is going

A narrow majority of bets are expecting LSU to be a little more dominant than Clemson on the same field, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

LSU is getting 53 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the margin to under 3 points in a loss on the road.

The other 47 percent of wagers project Clemson will win the game by at least four points and cover the narrow point spread at home.

LSU vs. Clemson future projections

LSU emerged as the No. 12 team in the nation, according to the Power Index’s updated 136-team college football rankings heading into Week 1.

The model projects the Tigers will be 14.8 points better than an average opponent on a neutral field this season.

And that they’ll win a total of 7.7 games, far below what LSU fans expect at this point.

That translates to a 3.0 percent shot to win the SEC Championship, but a more respectable 32.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

Clemson dipped in the computer rankings from the preseason to now, from No. 11 to No. 16, projected to be 13.7 points better than an average opponent in 2025.

But it leads the way in the ACC, with a 30.5 percent chance to win the conference title for a second-straight year and will win 9.1 games, according to the models.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate has the College Football Power Index computer prediction model been in recent memory? Last season, it was one of a select few to surpass the 70 percent success threshold.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

And it was one of a select few models that went over 50 percent when making its predictions against the spread, coming out ahead in 52.235 percent of its ATS projections. That was good for second-best among all college football prediction models among 55 various outlets.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.