LSU vs. Houston Prediction: Texas Bowl Preview

Why LSU Will Win The Texas Bowl

LSU’s roster isn’t hurting for talent, but with the coaching transition, along with opt outs and transfers, Wilson has a tough assignment to get this team ready on Dec. 27. 

However, if the Bayou Bengals are going to pull off the upset, it starts with a defense that ranks No. 11 in success rate and holds opponents to 18.3 points a contest. Only two opponents (Vanderbilt and Texas A&M) scored over 30 points against the Tigers, and coordinator Blake Baker’s group rarely gave up big plays. Baker won’t have top cornerback Mansoor Delane and potentially a few other key cogs, so new faces at every level will have to emerge for LSU’s defense to maintain its stellar play.

The offense has been a season-long struggle in Baton Rouge. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier was a preseason favorite for the Heisman Trophy but struggled with injuries before he was lost for the year in early November. Michael Van Buren has started the last four games for the Bayou Bengals, and the results haven’t been any better, as the offense averaged just 4.4 yards a play in November. 

Although the offense and Van Buren struggled down the stretch, bowl practices should help this unit regroup a bit. The one-two punch of running backs Caden Durham and Harlem Berry are likely to get a heavy workload

Why Houston Will Win The Texas Bowl

Houston has the edge on offense entering Saturday night’s game, which is crucial with points expected to be at a premium. 

Quarterback Conner Weigman’s arrival from the transfer portal from Texas A&M provided a massive boost to the Cougars’ offense. After averaging 14 points a contest in ‘24, Weigman helped this group jump to 28.3 a game this fall. Over 12 starts, the junior threw for 2,475 yards and 21 touchdowns and added 644 yards and 11 scores on the ground.  

Helping Weigman attack a standout LSU defense is all-purpose/running back Dean Connors (91.2 all-purpose yards a game), receiver Amare Thomas (59 catches) and tight end Tanner Koziol (65). 

LSU’s defense will garner the bulk of the attention entering Saturday night’s game, but Houston’s group shouldn’t be overlooked. With a struggling Tigers’ offense coming to town, if the Cougars pick up where they left off in the regular season, the Bayou Bengals will have trouble getting into scoring position all night on Dec. 27.

Houston’s defense held teams to 21.8 points a contest and just 5.2 yards a play. Coordinator Austin Armstrong’s group thrived at getting off the field on third downs and did not allow many big plays.

Texas Bowl Prediction: Houston 24, LSU 17

Don’t expect many offensive fireworks in this one. Despite the opt outs, LSU’s defense is still a tough matchup for Houston’s offense. If the Cougars protect Weigman, it’s tough to see the Bayou Bengals scoring enough with a limited offense to take home their second consecutive Texas Bowl trophy.