LSU vs. Texas A&M prediction, pick, odds for Saturday, Oct. 26

• LSU vs Texas A&M Point Spread: LSU +2.5 (-105) · Texas A&M -2.5 (-115)
• LSU vs Texas A&M Total: Over/Under 54
• LSU vs Texas A&M Moneyline: LSU +115 · Texas A&M -135

LSU vs Texas A&M Preview

LSU Tigers Betting Preview: Havoc, Havoc, Havoc

The LSU defense continues to provide the Havoc needed to gain an extra edge on opponents. New defensive coordinator Blake Baker has massively improved the Tigers’ defense in a number of areas, specifically against the rush.

The nickel defense has been exceptional against counter and power run concepts, helping the Tigers achieve a top-30 mark in Success Rate against the rush.

Tackling fundamentals continue to be a staple, ranking top-25 ranking, as linebackers Whit Weeks and Greg Penn III have led the team in the absence of Harold Perkins Jr.

Baker’s complex scheme flashed an “I Formation” defensively against Arkansas, disguising a quarterback spy.

LSU is looking to get creative against opponents in known passing downs, as it’s fallen outside the top 100 in Success Rate against the pass. A mix of man, Cover 1 and Cover 3 have produced limited results with a coverage grade of 88th, per PFF.

The great news for LSU is its ability to produce Havoc, as it generates the 13th-best pass rush in the nation.

Opponents are also averaging less than three points across 41 possessions when crossing the LSU 40-yard line, giving Baker’s defense a rank of 13th in Finishing Drives.

Offensively, the rise of Caden Durham at running back continues to pay dividends. The freshman tallied three rushing touchdowns against Arkansas while raising his average to 3.2 yards after first contact.

Meanwhile, quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks nationally in Passing Downs Success Rate. The senior has more than doubled his big-time-throw-to-turnover-worthy-play rate, generating 18 passing touchdowns and more than 2,200 yards through seven games.

However, explosive plays can be sparse, with only a single run and pass going for more than 20 yards against Arkansas.

Slot Aaron Anderson and wideout Kyren Lacy average over two yards per route run from an explosiveness standpoint, but they’ve combined for seven drops on the season.

Texas A&M Aggies Betting Preview: Strong Ground Game

Quarterback Conner Weigman produced the worst results of his career against Mississippi State, generating four turnover-worthy throws on 25 passing attempts.

Timing and inaccuracy issues were cited as the reasons for the mistakes in Starkville, as Weigman continues to recover from a shoulder injury from earlier in the season.

The great news for the Texas A&M offense is it has a trench that’s moving the pile against every opponent. In fact, the Aggies rank 11th in Line Yards and 10th in Stuff Rate.

Running back Le’Veon Moss has enjoyed the boost in Line Yards provided by the offensive line, as they’ve opened up some of the largest rushing holes in the SEC.

Similar to LSU, this is one of the most chaotic defenses in college football. The nickel package rotates between three- and four-man fronts depending on down and distance, and the Aggies are 10th-best in Havoc.

Missed tackles have been a constant for the Aggies this season and are a key indicator in close games. The Aggies missed 27 tackles in close contests against Arkansas and Mississippi State while limiting the number to just 13 in bigger margins of victory against Florida and Missouri.

LSU’s ability to create missed tackles will be paramount to getting chunk yardage at the second level against the Texas A&M defense.

LSU vs Texas A&M Pick & Prediction

There aren’t many soft spots in the Texas A&M defense, but the middle of the unit is the place to attack for opposing offenses.

The Aggies’ defensive EPA is top-35 — along with one of the best pass rushes in the nation — but the unit lacks a strong coverage grade thanks to passes over the middle.

Nussmeier has one of the highest passing grades nationally on throws between 10 and 19 yards, per PFF.

Additionally, nearly half of Anderson’s 46 targets have come in the last three games, producing an average depth of target of 17 yards per catch over the past two outings. Despite a drop in all of the past three games, Anderson’s receiving yards prop is worth an investment.

The biggest question circles around Weigman against an LSU pass defense that’s shown improvement. PFF graded the South Alabama and UCLA games as disasters from a coverage standpoint, while a Week 7 win over Ole Miss was by far the best game the LSU defense has played against the pass.

The hot pass coverage then continued against Arkansas.

Weigman may find pockets of success, but the Tigers have been ruthless when it comes to opponent scoring attempts.

The Action Network projections make Texas A&M a favorite by a point, prompting opening wagers on LSU over a field goal. While the point spread has less value on LSU under the key number of 3, the Tigers still have advantages offensively with Nussmeier leading the team.

A rising defense, led by Weeks, should be the difference in a rowdy Kyle Field upset.

Pick: LSU +2.5 or Better

How to Watch LSU vs Texas A&M Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location

LSU vs Texas A&M Betting Trends

• 81% of bets and 73% of the money are on LSU to cover the spread
• 17% of bets and 95% of the money on the moneyline are on LSU to win outright
• 62% of bets and 75% of the money are on the over
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Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.