Making Sense of the ACC Newcomers

#1 Why are Stanford and California in the ACC again?

Two fold answer here.

For starters, this was a move driven by the Olympic sports a/k/a the non-revenue generating sports.

When you look at Stanford, they have won the most overall NCAA national championships with 135 and has won 26 of 29 Director’s Cup - for top overall athletic program in the NCAA. California has 43 national championships plus its alumni have won 159 overall Olympic medals.

There was zero chance these schools were going to compete with Oregon State and Washington State in their collaboration in the Mountain West or West Coast Conference.

It was also Notre Dame’s influence to get them into the ACC. One of the major football reasons is with what is almost certain the attractive options like Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, Miami, and Virginia get poached by the Big Ten and SEC, having these schools in place will help keep the conference together.

Commissioner Jim Phillips hopes having a footprint in San Francisco and Dallas, two Top 10 television markets in the United States, will help make the ACC more attractive in their next negotiations in 2036, but will need to keep this conference together. 

#2 Is Troy Taylor the answer for the Cardinal?

After David Shaw’s abrupt resignation, almost as shocking was the announcement of Troy Taylor succeeding Shaw.

When Shaw succeeded Jim Harbaugh, Shaw possessed nearly a decade of experience in the NFL as an assistant and worked his way up with Jim Harbaugh between FCS San Diego and at Stanford as one of hottest coaching commodities.

Harbaugh came to Palo Alto via FCS San Diego and in many respects, the Cardinal hope to strike gold twice, taking a successful lower division coach and winning big.

Taylor’s resume left a lot to be desired. On one hand he spent the bulk of the 21st century coaching California high schools, where he coached Jake Browning, and spent a few years as an analyst for the California Golden Bears.

On the other hand at FCS Sacramento State, Taylor guided the Hornets to three Top 10 seasons and playoff appearances.

Taylor is trying to land consecutive Top 50 classes and early on the Class of 2025, Taylor is succeeding in landing six recruits that rank in 247Sports Top 50 at their respective positions.

The Achilles heel for Stanford that Taylor must fix is the defense, in the Cardinal’s 3-9 season last year, they ranked 132nd (out of 133) in scoring defense surrendering 37.7 points per game.

It’s early for Taylor, but I feel the Cardinal will be looking for another coach sooner rather than later and it isn’t an indictment on Taylor, the Stanford job is a lot tougher than Taylor’s coaching pedigree possesses to be that transformative coach like Harbaugh and Shaw were. 

#3 Could the Golden Bear offense be the best of the Wilcox era?

Many analysts felt last year’s Golden Bears team were at the bottom of the Pac-12, but a late season surge got them to their first bowl game.

The player you should know and the reason many tune in to watch California is running back Jaydn Ott.

Ott has set for himself lofty expectations entering this season, following the Independence Bowl he said he would like to make a run for the Heisman Trophy.

How would Ott make this happen?

“Quote-unquote, you would have to go stupid,” Ott began to answer this to the Mercury-News, “get some of those up to 200.”

Ott was referring to the five 150-yard performances he had in 2023 getting more 200 yards performances, if he wants to make his Heisman move, two great opportunities present themselves in September with trips to Auburn and Florida State.

Wilcox has a quarterback set in redshirt sophomore Fernando Mendoza, who separated himself from the competition during the Golden Bears three-game winning streak to end the 2023 regular season.

Mendoza completed 65.5% of his passes during the Golden Bears late season winning streak, and seemingly has gelled with his top two wide receivers in Tobias Merriweather and Trond Grizzell more this spring, “So, I mean, Trond and I, we came through scout team together. We came through last year together, especially in fall camp when we're both running with the threes. And throughout the season, I mean the guy had 150 yards against Stanford. So Trond and I, our chemistry is very tight and he's a great receiver, makes me look good a lot of times.

And Tobias [Merriweather] is a hard worker. He's a really great guy. We're always watching film, always throwing on Saturdays. And you saw it there. He had a great fade route where he extended the guy, gave me time.”

California set the bar last season with the best scoring offense and total offense numbers in the Wilcox-era and are poised to raise the bar once again.

#4 Will “The Pony Express” ride amongst the nation’s elite again?

If there was a program that put their money, literally and figuratively, where their mouths were, it was Southern Methodist.

The Mustangs administration and boosters desiring to be in the Power 4 competition made a move so bold that the ACC couldn’t say no to it.

Southern Methodist took an unprecedented step of forgoing nine years of Tier 1 media rights revenue from the ACC, an amount estimated to be valued at $350 million, in exchange to their return to Power 4 football.

ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips needing valuable pieces to keep the conference afloat, something the Pac-12 missed on when Southern California and UCLA bolted for the Big Ten, couldn’t resist getting a member essentially for free for nine years, one that is the No. 5 television market in the United States, and one firmly planted in one of the most fertile football recruiting grounds in the nation.

What the ACC is getting is a program that can be viewed as a half empty/half full program.

Critics will point to the 2023 Fenway Bowl loss to ACC middle power Boston College as evidence it got another bottom feeder.

While that defeat did not help the Mustangs, what certainly helps is everything else.

Southern Methodist possesses one of the best young offensive minds today in Rhett Lashlee, who has continued the streak of Top 15 offenses that was set by predecessor Sonny Dykes.

Last season, the Mustangs were 10-0 when it scored 30 or more points and finished the regular season in the top 20 in the NCAA on offense in first downs (5th, 312), passing offense (19th, 285.1), passing yards per completion (6th, 14.82), red zone offense (10th, .929), sacks allowed (13th, 15), scoring offense (6th, 40.6), team passing efficiency (17th, 156.1) and total offense (14th, 465.5)

Redshirt junior QB Preston Stone, who was third-team All-AAC, will be the centerpiece of Lashlee’s offense along with tailback Jaylan Knighton, who led all Mustang rushers with 745 yards rushing and total yards from scrimmage with 834 yards, returns for his final season of eligibility.

The Mustangs also hope to build on a defense that trailed only Penn State in total sacks on defense with 47, led by defensive end Elijah Roberts, who finished with 10 sacks and returns for a final season of eligibility. Defensive coordinator Scott Symons has seen he defense take clear steps forward since his first season. With a promising transfer class coming in, they could be primed to make another jump entering ACC play. 

On the future front, Lashlee hopes that the Class of 2025 commit quarterback Keelon Russell, a four-star recruit from Duncanville (Duncanville, TX), who is ranked by 247Sports No. 7 amongst all quarterbacks nationally. Russell has expressed interest in taking additional visits since committing to SMU, but the Mustangs do have a legitimate shot at holding onto his commitment as well. If he makes it to campus, Russell has the potential to be a program changer. 

No school has made a stronger gamble than Southern Methodist, their NIL collective - Boulevard Collective, was assessed to be on the same level as Oregon’s Division Street NIL collective during the courting to become a Pac-12 member.

Having a collective with that kind of resources, in a talent rich state, in one of the biggest markets in the country, there is $350 million or so on the line to get “The Pony Express” riding again, and its hard to imagine that it won’t be riding amongst the nation’s elites sooner rather than later.