Miami vs. Iowa State Pop-Tarts Bowl: Prediction, Preview, and Betting Lines

Originally posted on College Football News
By Pete Fiutak | Last updated Dec 28, 2024 1:54 AM ET

It’s a showdown between two teams that were THIS close to being the 3 and 4 seeds in the College Football Playoff.

Miami almost certainly would’ve beaten SMU in the ACC Championship - it would’ve been the 3 seed - and Iowa State would’ve been the 4 if it didn’t get run over by Cam Skattebo and Arizona State in the Big 12 Championship.

The Cyclones lost their last two bowl games and four of their last five, but again, they had a great season right up until they were flattened 45-19 by the Sun Devils. They’re not missing all that much in the transfer portal, and neither is Miami.

The Canes lost their last five bowl games and 11 of their last 12. The last bowl win was over West Virginia in the 2016 Russell Athletic.

Miami vs Iowa State: How to Watch the Pop-Tarts Bowl, Game Preview

Date: Saturday, December 28, 2024
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET
How To Watch: ABC
Venue: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Teams: Miami (10-2), Iowa State (10-3)
Fiu Bluesky | CFN Bluesky | CFN X | CFN FB
- Bowl Schedule, Scoreboard, Predictions

Why Iowa State Will Win

Really? Will Cam Ward actually play in this? Yes, the Miami star quarterback is expected to go, but everything changes if he doesn’t. At the very least, star WR Xavier Restrepo is very, very questionable.

Miami is at its best when Ward is in control and keeps the tempo in his command. The problem with that is an Iowa State defense that’s strong on third downs, is tenth in the nation in pass efficiency D, and is great at keeping offenses from going off.

The Cyclones are 8-0 when allowing fewer than 215 passing yards, which normally goes hand-in-hand with a slew of takeaways. The Miami offense doesn’t have a turnover problem, but it’ll give it up a time or two. But …

Why Miami Will Win

Cam Ward won’t be held to 215 passing yards.

The Hurricanes threw for exactly 215 in the blowout win over Florida State, threw for 280 in the dominant win over Wake Forest, and close to 320 or more against everyone else.

Usually opponents have to throw to keep up with the Canes, but Iowa State will want to balance it out a bit to keep the time of possession on its side.

The problem with that is a Miami run defense that allowed fewer than four yards per carry and was only gouged in the loss to Georgia Tech and close win over Virginia Tech.

Miami vs Iowa State: Who Will Win?

Again, assuming Ward is a go - make sure to check on this before game time because the line will shift one way or another - both teams will throw, both teams will want to dictate the tempo, and Miami does both of those things better.

Iowa State will make this a fight thanks to the turnover margin and penalties - Miami will get it for at least five more. But the Hurricane offense will be too efficient against a Cyclone D missing a steady pass rush.

Miami vs Iowa State Pop-Tarts Bowl Prediction, Betting Lines

Prediction: Miami 34, Iowa State 28
Line: Miami -4.5, o/u: 57.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
Must See Rating: 4
- Pop-Tarts Expert Picks and Predictions COMING

This article first appeared on College Football News and was syndicated with permission.

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